Re: Taiwan US Tension

On 9 1 , 11 32 , "Mark Test" <MARK...@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
"Yu" <yuga...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote in message

news:1188620512.485145.268830@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The Taiwan separatists is a very unique brand of nationalism in that
they pin their hope entirely on USA. The Taiwan military is still
heavily influenced by the old KMT officers are not willing to fight
for an independent Taiwan.

What do you think the odds are of a peaceful re-unification?

It's a very difficult question to answer.
Ironically, the side most likely, and eager to start a confict is the
Taiwan separatists. Their reasoning being that mainland with a
population 60X the size of Taiwan and growing economic importance
will be too strong in the future. If they start a conflict now, the
combined power of USA and Japan will defeat mainland.

China, USA and most residents of Taiwan, on the other hand, wanted
stability. China needs stability to develope its economy. Status quo
will almost certainly results in china becoming one of the most
influencial nation on earth.
If USA wants a conflict with china they can start one themselves at
their own chosen time. For Taiwan to start a conflict and drag US into
it is most annoying to say the least.

If the separatists can't start a conflict in the near future, it is
likely that the moderate KMT will win the next election and the chance
of peaceful unification is possible.

Taiwan election is unpredictable in that vote buying, rumours often
cause upset.
The opposition candidate is now charged with corruption, an allegation
most people believed is politically motivated. It is not clear if he
will be disqualified last minute. (supreme court judges are nominated
by the president)


My understanding is that Chinese (Mandarin) is the official language of
Taiwan,

the gov has recently included several dialects as "official languages"
but in practice mandarin is the official language. It is the langauge
of higher learning

Mandarin is the common language of all the ethnic groups in Taiwan.It
is the only written language commonly in use even though many people
speak various dialects such as ming-nan or hakka. These dialects ve
limited vocabulary and has limited function as written language.

they use Chinese currency, and of course the strong business relations
between Taipei and Bejing.

Taiwan has its own currency (Republic of China printed on it).
2/3 of Taiwan's external trade is with mainland.
Almost all the large corporations invest heavily in Mainland China.
The separatists draw their support form the unemployed low skill
workers in the south who lose their jobs.

Mark

--
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