Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season April forecasts

On Apr 3, 4:35 pm, "urillan" <uril...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Apr 3, 2:58 pm, "Jack Linthicum" <jacklinthi...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:

A very nasty Atlantic hurricane season is on tap in 2007, according to
the latest seasonalforecastissued today by Dr. BillGrayand Phil

It's actually supposed to be a mere 10% increase over the averages for
the last century. Almost looks like they are playing the averages.
Except for the "hard-numbers" for named storms, they simply appear to
have effectively averages last years numbers with 1950-2006's stats
with a linear bias favoring more recent years (like 2006*50 + 2005*49
+ etc...).

I am not implying this is what was done, but we all still await an
April figure that shows an absurdly low number which pans out to be an
accurate description by year's end.

You can't make any money predicting good times, this is last years
predictions at this time.


2006 Hurricane Prediction - 2006 Hurricane Forecast


One in Six Americans Could be Directly Impacted by 2006 Hurricane
Season

The 2006 forecast calls for:
- 17 named tropical storms; an average season has 9.6.
- 9 hurricanes compared to the average of 5.9.
- 5 major hurricanes with winds exceeding 110 mph; average is 2.3.

May 15, 2006-The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center, led by Chief
Forecaster Joe Bastardi, today released its 2006 hurricane season
forecast. An active hurricane season appears imminent, which could
have major repercussions for the U.S. economy and the one in six
Americans who live on the Eastern Seaboard or along the western Gulf
of Mexico.

For the 2006 Hurricane Season-which traditionally runs from June 1
through November 30-Bastardi and his team are forecasting that six
tropical cyclones will make landfall in the U.S. Five of these
landfalling storms are likely to be hurricanes, with three being major
hurricanes of Category 3 or greater.


This is what happened in 2006, there is a chart of the paths at the
cite

The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season was an event in the annual cycle of
tropical cyclone formation. This season was unusual in that no
hurricanes made landfall in the United States of America. It started
on June 1, 2006, and officially ended on November 30, 2006. These
dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most
tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin.

One system, Tropical Storm Zeta from the 2005 season, continued
through early January, only the second time on record that had
happened. Tropical Storm Alberto was responsible for 2 indirect deaths
when it made landfall in Florida. Hurricane Ernesto caused heavy
rainfall in Haiti, and directly killed at least 7 people in Haiti and
the United States. Four more hurricanes formed after Ernesto,
including the strongest storms of the season, Hurricanes Helene and
Gordon. However, no tropical cyclones formed in the month of October,
the first time this had happened since the 1994 season.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Atlantic_hurricane_season

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