Re: Shoot it down (NK missile)


Kevin Brooks wrote:
"Jack Linthicum" <jacklinthicum@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:1150902650.439221.229710@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Kevin Brooks wrote:
"Jack Linthicum" <jacklinthicum@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:1150816459.240937.67190@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

dbohara@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx wrote:
Under what conditions should we attempt to shoot down a NK missile?

This does not deal with the technical issues, just the political ones.

I assume we would if:

It came lower than 60 miles over US or Japan.
if its calculated ballistic trajectory showed its impact in US or
Japan.

What other conditions would result in the US deciding to try to shoot
it down soon after take-off?

I know we currently do not have boost phase intercept, this is simply
what-if.

Do you know the characteristics of this "threat"?

Apparently you don't, that's for sure, if you are depending on FAS for
your
data (FYI, FAS has dropped way behind the power curve in this realm since
Pike left them).


http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/missile/td-2.htm

Or you could go to the site now run by the fellow who probably wrote the
original article you cited (which had its last info added apparently in
2001) sometime in the late nineties and get a more up-to-date (through
2005)
report:

"The Taep'o-dong-2 (TD-2) is said to be a two or three stage missile.
North
Korea has given various names to the Taep'o-dong missile, such as
No-dong-3,
Hwasong (Mars)-2 and Moksong (Jupiter)-2. Over time, the estimated range
has
grown substantially. It was initially estimated to have a range of 4,000
km,
but is currently estimated to have a range of up to 15,000 km. The throw
weight is variously estimated as between a few hundred kilograms to 1,000
kg, depending on the range."

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/td-2.htm

Gee, that sure differs from your antique version...

<snip out-of-date info>

Brooks


Yeah, Global Security has Charles Vick whom I had contact with off and
on, mostly off
during the 1960s says "communications satellite".

Gee, I thought that was when you were claiming to have been going through
CIA demolitions training at The Farm?

Interesting, I
haven't seen anything that would rate the Taepo-dong of any number or
letter at geostationary orbit capability. In a way it would be more
significant than an ICBM, showing distance delivery and accurate
guidance. The Soviets put their first geostationary satellite up in
1974, 17 years after Sputnik 1.

And they had ICBM's in service much earlier than 1974 than that, so your
point would be exactly what?

Brooks


http://www.space.com/news/060619_nkorea_missile.html

North Korea's Missile Launch Site Under Watchful Eyes
By Leonard David
Senior Space Writer
posted: 19 June 2006
01:44 pm ET

North Korea's Pyongyang's Taepodong-2 missile launch is under the
watchful eyes of both U.S. military and civilian satellites.

The looming liftoff of the missile flies in the face of stern warnings
from both the United States and Japan. Meanwhile, numbers of reports
suggest that fueling of the rocket has been completed, although bad
weather in the launch area could delay the flight.

The Taepodong-2 missile is purportedly capable of reaching a target
nearly 3,000 miles away, thus putting in range, for example, United
States territory.

Mark Brender, Vice President, Communications & Marketing for GeoEye of
Dulles, Virginia, told SPACE.com that their Orbview-3 and IKONOS
commercial remote sensing satellites have repeatedly taken snapshots of
North Korea's Taepo Dong launch complex in the northeast part of the
country.

GeoEye satellite imagery has documented the work leading up to the
rocket's takeoff.

Satellite launch attempt?

Globalsecurity.org based in Alexandria, Virginia-a watchdog and think
tank group on security issues-has also kept an eye on North Korea's
missile work.

"If this launch does not occur within the next few weeks then it must
be assumed that some political policy and or technical issue have
scrubbed this attempt for some unknown period," reported Charles
Vick, a senior fellow of the group that specializes in Russian,
Chinese, Iranian and North Korean ballistic missiles and space boosters
analysis.

Vick has reported that the North Korean missile is likely topped with a
communications satellite.

Preparations for the possible orbital test launch of the
Taep'o-dong-2C/3 have been monitored using a number of assets, Vick
reported. Based on open press reports, he said, U.S.
intelligence-gathering operations about the rocket preparations have
included U-2 spy plane or space-based spysats, as well as Japanese
imaging observation satellites.

Vick stated that the booster's payload is assumed to be a
communications satellite.

"The fact that the launch site is above ground exposed where a very
great deal can be observed certainly holds that this is a satellite
launch attempt not a strategic ballistic missile operation," Vick
reported on the Globalsecurity.org web site. "If the launch were to
occur from a coffin launch site or a large silo facility then it would
be an easily recognizable strategic systems test. A true full range
ICBM flight test is not at this time expected out of North Korea," he
said.

Vick noted that there is very little difference between an
Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) and a satellite launch
vehicle test "since the delivery transport system is being commonly
demonstrated."



The course didn't last more than six months, the rest of the time I was
supposed to do real work.

If you will read it carefully, and I must remember next time to phrase
so even an idiot can read and understand what I write, " (t)he Soviets
put their first geostationary satellite up in 1974, 17 years after
Sputnik 1." most people as hip as you claim to be would know that
Sputnik 1 was put up by the SS-6 ICBM SL-1 variant. The SS-6 was
operational in 1960.

By the way I came across one of my CIA w-2 forms the other day. Know
anyone I could send a copy to?

.

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