Re: Ophelia heads for South Carolina

"Kevin Brooks" <brooksvmi@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>>
>> Yes, my mistake. Not five days. Three days. Still enough time to
>> stockpile material in advance of landfall.
>
>Nice dance you got going for you there! In actuality, the track showing
>landfall was put out on the 26th, and landfall occurred on the 29th, so you
>are most definitely pushing, if not exceeding, even your new three day
>limit. And three days was plenty of time to locate staging areas, assemble
>the required materiel and manpower, and get them staged, eh? Have you ever
>worked on a major military operation in the real world? It is, I can assure
>you, quite different from the fantasy environment you apparently inhabit.

Well, since you apparently believe otherwise, anything I say is
obviously wrong in your "Feds can do no wrong" world.

Yes, if WalMart can have 27 truckloads of supplies ready and waiting
to go in the same amount of prepositioning time as the Federal
government had, and then get those 27 truckloads of supplies actually
delivered to the hardest hit areas hours after the storm hit, then
yes, I believe it should have been possible for the Feds (with their
larger resources and authority) to do the same.

It's called pre-planning, Kevin. Perhaps you should look up what that
means.

>>
>>>-which was then within the fan of possible tracks as
>>>published by the NHC. On August 26 the five day fan showed the potential
>>>landfall range for the storm stretching from Panama City to the
>>>Louisiana/Texas border. Until 11:00 AM Friday, NOAA was predicting that
>>>your
>>>self-identified prime staging area at Pensacola was dead in the crosshairs
>>>of the track.
>>>
>>>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina#Advance_weather_forecasts
>>
>> "By August 26 the possibility of "unprecedented cataclysm" was already
>> being considered [14]. Some computer models were putting New Orleans
>> right in the center of their track probabilities, and the chances of a
>> direct hit were forecast at nearly 10%. Louisiana Gov. Kathleen
>> Babineaux Blanco (D) declared a state of emergency"
>
>Nice try. You need to go back and read where the NHC had it going earlier
>that same day--yep, that's right, Florida.

If Blanco declared a state of emergency for Louisiana, then, please
show me where the Florida Governor did the same thing if he believed
Katrina was heading for HIS state.

>>
>> Looks like Blanco was sure enough of where that storm would hit to
>> declare her state of emergency that day. Thanks for making my point.
>
>I did not make your point. You have yet to make any point other than that
>when faced with hard facts, you quickly tapdance away from your previous
>rant (you repeatedly, in the face of argument otherwise, argued that the
>five day forecast had the storm hitting the NO area) and settle on a NEW
>standard that seems to fit your case--but really doesn't. I guess you figure
>it is hard to hit a moving target, which is why you are so amenable to
>changing your tune, eh?

Answer the question, Kevin. Why didn't Florida's governor declare a
state of emergency for his state if the path was such that it would
hit his state? It couldn't be that the path kept shifting west all
that day, was it, and likely to keep shifting west toward New Orleans?
Could it have been that Governor Bush did not see the threat the way
you did? Also, where was the evacuation order for Pensacola? If they
were as certainly in the path as New Orleans, then why didn't that
city evacuate?

>> Yeah,
>
>Yeah, what? Yeah, you were dead wrong with your previous oft-repeated
>assertions?

>that 11pm graphic really makes it likely that Pensacola was
>> right in the crosshairs, doesn't it?
>
>Bravo! I see you finally managed to figure out when the NHC track forecast
>changed (that 11:00 message).

It was changing all day, moving further and further west.

>> By 11pm it was headed right for New Orleans and that track didn't vary
>> much at all after that.
>
>So what?

That's still three days that everyone could plan for. It also takes
Pensacola (and Houston, and Shreveport, and Panama City) out of the
crosshairs.

>geeze man, you have the benifit of
>*hindsight*, and you STILL can't manage to come up with a workable
>prepositioning plan,

No, that's not my job. Unfortunately, it was SOMEONE's job, and they
screwed the pooch royally. It's called planning ahead, Kevin,
something you are apparently unable to wrap your mind about in your
fixation on calling me a liar.
>>
>> I suggest you read the discussions for Katrina, Kevin.
>
>I suggest you read the crap you have been posting again--you have been shown
>to be wrong on point after point.

Read the discussions for Katrina, Kevin. The NHS was saying all day
on the 26th it looked like the path was shifting westward.


> Only a 100 mile variance in the track over
>the entire time it was being forecast, right? Those were your words. They
>were very wrong. Just as your earlier claim that Pensacola was never within
>the forecasted strike zone was wrong. What I can't figure is how a guy like
>you who can't get his facts straight AFTER the fact can have the gall to
>challenege the efforts of those who did not have the beneifit of such
>wonderful 20-20 hindsight. And worse, when you get caught wrong, you can't
>bear to admit it. Sad, very sad.
>
OK, I was wrong about Pensacola never being in the forecast track. I
was wrong about it being more than 100 miles off within the 5 days
before it hit.

Now, your turn. Was three days still time to preposition material and
manpower in places such as Pensacola, Houston (never in the path, BTW)
or Shreveport?

Or, are you just going to focus on finding more fault with my posts
instead of discussing this subject? If the latter, I'll killfile you
now so I don't have to put up with your garbage any longer.

John Lansford
--
The unofficial I-26 Construction Webpage:
http://users.vnet.net/lansford/a10/
.

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