Re: Ophelia heads for South Carolina

"Kevin Brooks" <brooksvmi@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

>
>"John Lansford" <jlnsford@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
>news:lfh6i1lafuqddrkboiv6ohonetad583e02@xxxxxxxxxx
>> "Kevin Brooks" <brooksvmi@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>"John Lansford" <jlnsford@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
>>>news:7he5i15j50nnucs9pg4gcajk9sr9cf4o6r@xxxxxxxxxx
>>>> "Kevin Brooks" <brooksvmi@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I don't think you are able to handle this but I will explain anyway.
>>>>>
>>>>>Oooh! An explanation from Jack, Super Spy! Who, from his tone here,
>>>>>obviously did not understand the precvious barb was intended for
>>>>>*another*
>>>>>bozo who claimed that five-day out predictions of hurricanes are plenty
>>>>>precise... Meanwhile, the current NOAA prediction fan for Ophelia looks
>>>>>more
>>>>>like a big "blob", and it is plain they are unable to predict whether it
>>>>>will hit Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, or Virginia, or
>>>>>whether
>>>>>it
>>>>>might instead turn further and head out to sea...
>>>>
>>>> Well, Kevin, let me enlighten you some, if you can actually understand
>>>> simple concepts on this subject.
>>>
>>>You are not gonna address the key issue, which was your assertion that
>>>five-day out track forecasts are plenty accurate enough to allow
>>>prelocation
>>>of supplies and relief coordination centers without their being potential
>>>victims themselves, are you?
>>
>> I will point out that the track for KATRINA was well known enough days
>> in advance to accurately forecast where it was going.
>
>Uhmmm...I believe your claim earlier was that the five-day out forecast was
>sufficiently accurate to allow prepositioning of supplies on the Florida
>panhandle at pensacola-

Yes, my mistake. Not five days. Three days. Still enough time to
stockpile material in advance of landfall.

>-which was then within the fan of possible tracks as
>published by the NHC. On August 26 the five day fan showed the potential
>landfall range for the storm stretching from Panama City to the
>Louisiana/Texas border. Until 11:00 AM Friday, NOAA was predicting that your
>self-identified prime staging area at Pensacola was dead in the crosshairs
>of the track.
>
>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina#Advance_weather_forecasts

"By August 26 the possibility of "unprecedented cataclysm" was already
being considered [14]. Some computer models were putting New Orleans
right in the center of their track probabilities, and the chances of a
direct hit were forecast at nearly 10%. Louisiana Gov. Kathleen
Babineaux Blanco (D) declared a state of emergency"

Looks like Blanco was sure enough of where that storm would hit to
declare her state of emergency that day. Thanks for making my point.

>The track was
>> for that hurricane to make landfall between NO and Mobile, and it did
>> so. That track was forecast at least 5 days in advance, even before it
>> became a Cat 3 storm.
>
>See above--I have no idea where you are getting such ideas from, but the
>fact is that five days out they were looking more towards the panhandle. On
>August 26 at 5:00 AM the predicted track was dead across the Pensacola area.
>Go check out the NHC archives if you doubt that. On August 25th the track
>was also shown going across the panhandle. On August 26th at 5:00 PM the
>track had moved to where it was hitting Mississsippi. Now I don't know what
>kind of strage construct you will create that says that August 26th was more
>than five days before the actual landfall date of August 29th, but I am sure
>you will try to come up with one. You can watch the history of the NHC
>tarcks at the below site, which I place a heck of a lot more confidence in
>than your already proven false recollections
>
>http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KATRINA_graphics.shtml

Yeah, that 11pm graphic really makes it likely that Pensacola was
right in the crosshairs, doesn't it? I guess that's why Blanco
declared a state of emergency for LA; she was worried about it hitting
Pensacola!

>>
>>>>
>>>> The environmental conditions steering Katrina were well known and
>>>> understood days in advance of her making landfall.
>>>
>>>You still refuse to acknowledge that the folks at the NHC had earlier
>>>placed
>>>the Florida panhandle within Katrina's track fan, right?
>>
>> The center of the track did not vary more than a 100 miles at the most
>> throughout the forecast time period.
>
>Wrong. Just plain flat out wrong. The NHC track for August 26 shows the
>track some 450 or more miles from whre it would be two days later.

By 11pm it was headed right for New Orleans and that track didn't vary
much at all after that.
>>
>> Are we talking about Ophelia or some other storm, Kevin? The NHS knew
>> what would be affecting Katrina long before those features did, and
>> they were right, as was their forecast track days before it hit.
>
>Wrong. And if you persist in making such outlandish claims after visiting
>the NHC archives I directed you to, that will make you not only wrong but
>also a liar, being as your (without providing any hard evidence--gee, who'd
>have thunk it?) repeated assertions that the predicted track did not vary
>more than 100 miles is just plain flat wrong, as the evidence I gave you
>shows quite clearly.

I suggest you read the discussions for Katrina, Kevin. They all
clearly state that there were weather conditions that would cause her
to turn north and head toward the Gulf Coast. By 11pm they were
certain enough of her path that from then onward the path did not
change until she hit the coast. Unlike Ophelia, which does not have
any such strong steering currents (which this topic is about, BTW).

John Lansford
--
The unofficial I-26 Construction Webpage:
http://users.vnet.net/lansford/a10/
.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Ophelia heads for South Carolina
    ... based upon NHC five day forecasts that the NHC itself admits have a large ... IIRC--meaning that for every one they within fifty miles, ... >>five day forecast had the storm hitting the NO area) and settle on a NEW ... where was the evacuation order for Pensacola? ...
    (sci.military.naval)
  • Re: Ophelia heads for South Carolina
    ... >> stockpile material in advance of landfall. ... delivered to the hardest hit areas hours after the storm hit, ... >five day forecast had the storm hitting the NO area) and settle on a NEW ... where was the evacuation order for Pensacola? ...
    (sci.military.naval)
  • Re: Ophelia heads for South Carolina
    ... >>> in advance to accurately forecast where it was going. ... You need to go back and read where the NHC had it going earlier ... >>August 26 at 5:00 AM the predicted track was dead across the Pensacola ... >>> The center of the track did not vary more than a 100 miles at the most ...
    (sci.military.naval)
  • Re: Ophelia heads for South Carolina
    ... Uhmmm...I believe your claim earlier was that the five-day out forecast was ... Your claim that predictions are so accurate as to have allowed such ... > for that hurricane to make landfall between NO and Mobile, ... Go check out the NHC archives if you doubt that. ...
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