Re: 3000 NG not enough for Katrina (Was Re: Iraqis Miss Third Constitution Deadline...


Jack Linthicum wrote:
> Vince wrote:
> > Keith W wrote:
> > > "Vince" <firelaw@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
> > > news:dc2dnevrAKZlcIveRVn-tA@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >>Keith W wrote:
> > >>
> > >>>"Brian Allardice" <dba@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
> > >>>news:43jdh1peun47fn372svd9gmqpghn4j6g85@xxxxxxxxxx
> > >>>
> > >>>
> > >>>>On Thu, 01 Sep 2005 05:28:25 -0400, John Lansford
> > >>>><jlnsford@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> > >>>>
> > >>>>
> > >>>>
> > >>>>>Mike P <res1yj7x@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>>If they had they would have built all new ones in the last eleven
> > >>>>>>years,
> > >>>>>>and had enough to maintain them. That they keep them at a Cat. 3 Storm
> > >>>>>>rating shows they are at fault when there have been Cat. 5 storms
> > >>>>>>hitting the Gulf Coast all these years.
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>No Cat 5 hurricane has hit the US Gulf Coast since Camille in 1969.
> > >>>>>Get your facts straight. In fact, only three Cat 5 hurricanes have
> > >>>>>ever hit the US anywhere; the Labor Day hurricane, Camille and Andrew.
> > >>>>>The reason why the levees aren't designed for a Cat 5 storm is based
> > >>>>>on cost and risk; the chance such a storm would hit NO was very small,
> > >>>>>but the cost to build such a system was prohibitive. It's the same
> > >>>>>reason why drainage systems in cities aren't designed for 500 year
> > >>>>>floods.
> > >>>>
> > >>>>On your own evidence, a 36 year hurricane is not a 500 year flood.
> > >>>>Check the damages, like do you think 25 billion could perhaps justify
> > >>>>a penny or two here and there for protection? And now, no doubt, you
> > >>>>are going to whine for government compensation. What happened to your
> > >>>>fucking free market? Don't you guys have private sector insurance?
> > >>>>Surely you are not a bunch of commies....
> > >>>>
> > >>>
> > >>>
> > >>>Unless you can show category 5 hurricanes hit NOLA every
> > >>>36 years your analysis is deeply flawed.
> > >>>
> > >>
> > >>no, not really. When 500 year events occurs in the first 10% of the time
> > >>period, the probability increases that the frequency was underestimated.
> > >>
> > >
> > >
> > > NOLA has been there for around 300 years so this Hurricane
> > > is hardly in the first 10% of the time period.
> > >
> > > Keith
> >
> > However the ability to measure "categories" of storm is much more
> > recent. The City has a long history of hurricanes
> > http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/research/laerly19hu.htm
> >
> > Early 19th Century
> > David Roth*
> > National Weather Service
> > Lake Charles, LA
> >
> >
> > 1811: Hurricane struck New Orleans.
> >
> > August 19-20th, 1812: A hurricane struck just west of New Orleans. At 5
> > PM on the 19th, winds began out of the northeast in New Orleans. Winds
> > increased to a "perfect hurricane" at 11 PM. Winds abated after 2:30 PM
> > the next day. Nearly all buildings suffered. All window panes in City
> > Hall were broken. Fifteen feet of water covered the city. Extensive
> > damage to buildings, trees, and 53 boats was seen. The levee was
> > destroyed, which allowed the storm surge to submerge areas south of the
> > city. Plaquemines Parish went under as much as 15 feet of Gulf water.
> > Sugar crops suffered severely. Nearly 100 people died during the storm.
> > Losses totaled $6 million.
> >
> > Some public panic set in when after the storm rumors spread that the
> > British had taken over Fort St. Phillip; this storm struck during the
> > thick of the War of 1812 and the fort was controlled by the Americans at
> > the time. In fact, the British fleet approaching the area was scattered
> > widely across the Gulf during the storm. Fort St. Phillip itself went
> > underwater.
> >
> > August 19, 1813: Hurricane affected Gulf coast. Considered very
> > destructive.
> >
> > July 25-28, 1819: Hurricane affected the coast from Louisiana to
> > Alabama. Its full force was felt at Bay St. Louis. New Orleans was at
> > the fringe of the storm and suffered no severe damage. Ships at Balize
> > (Pilottown) suffered a strong gale for 24 hours, but only 3 ships were
> > grounded. Lakes Pontchartrain and Borgne rose 5 to 6 feet during the
> > storm. Forty one lives were lost on the U.S. Man of War schooner
> > Firebrand, a 150 ton gun ship, while it lay off the west end of Cat
> > Island. In total, 43 people lost their lives.
> >
> > September 15-17, 1821: A second much larger yet weaker hurricane struck
> > near Bay St. Louis. The gale continued for over 24 hours at New Orleans.
> > A dozen willow trees were the main casualties there. The storm was more
> > damaging at Petite Coquille, where 4 soldiers drowned when an 8 foot
> > storm surge overwashed the island. The fort there was nearly swept away.
> > In all, over 35 people died in the tempest.
> >
> > August 16-17th, 1831: The Great Barbados hurricane, very destructive,
> > hit just west of Last Island, west of Baton Rouge. Killed 1500 people
> > along its path from Barbados to New Orleans. A fishing village on Grand
> > Isle was destroyed when the tide rose 6 feet. Sugarcane crops were
> > damaged severely from Baton Rouge to Pointe a la Hache. Orchards and
> > gardens in Plaquemines parish sustained considerable damage.
> >
> > August 28-29, 1831: A strong tropical storm struck Southwest Louisiana.
> > High tides were seen west of Lake Borgne...gales were seen in New
> > Orleans overnight on the 28-29th. Gales raged much more severely near
> > the Sabine River and across Central Louisiana near Opelousas and
> > Attakapas. Cotton was ruined in Baton Rouge and Alexandria due to the
> > heavy rains and winds. High winds were noted as far northwest as Fort
> > Jessup, southwest of Natchitoches.
> >
> > October 6-7, 1837: Racer's Storm hit Matamoros, Mexico before recurving
> > northeast and striking Louisiana coast just east of Cameron; moved east
> > across Gulf coast before heading across North Carolina and then out into
> > the Atlantic. Storm caused a surge of 8 feet of water above high tide on
> > Lake Pontchartrain.
> >
> > New Orleans experienced a "gale" on the 5th and 6th, destroying
> > chimneys, awnings, and many area roofs. The City Exchange on Lewis
> > Street, which was under construction at the time, suffered much damage.
> > The original wooden Bayou St. John lighthouse, the first built by the
> > U.S. Government outside the original 13 colonies, was swept into
> > obscurity. All wharves along the Mississippi coast were washed away with
> > the tide. The storm caused widespread flooding and considerable damage
> > to shipping; all boats, including 4 steamboats, perished in the storm.
> >
> > Lower portions of New Orleans were submerged. Many of the buildings were
> > damaged or carried away by the tide. Crops were seriously damaged along
> > both sides of the Mississippi, particularly sugarcane and cotton. Six
> > lives were lost. See Texas Hurricane History for more on the earlier
> > history of this storm.
> >
> > September 14-17th, 1839: This storm struck Charley's Lake (later named
> > Charleston, then Lake Charles). An "appearance of rain" was noted in the
> > T. Rigmaiden Diary on the 14th. Rain began on the 15th with a "hard
> > wind". Rainfall increased in intensity on the 16th. By the 17th, the
> > rain and wind subsided, while cloudiness lingered.
> >
> > June 19th-23rd, 1840: Another reference to a tropical storm appears in
> > the diary in June of the next year. An "all day rain" began on the 19th
> > and continued for days. Wind increased by the 21st, as corn was "blown
> > down in the field". The center of the cyclone passed to the west of
> > Charley's Lake (Charleston, Lake Charles), as a "hard south wind" blew
> > through the area. Rain continued until the 23rd.
> >
> > June 11-15th, 1844: Charleston (Lake Charles) experiences another storm.
> > During the 10th and 11th, threatening skies brought the promise of rain.
> > A "very hard rain" materialized on the 12th. A continuation of the
> > deluge on the 13th led to the bending of corn stalks and the washing
> > away of a bridge. Rainfall continued through the 15th.
> >
> > April 3rd-4th, 1846: Hurricane hits Balize, near the Mouth of the
> > Mississippi. Considered the most damaging since 1831. The storm cut a
> > new boat channel between Cat Island and its lighthouse. It is possible
> > this was an intense springtime low in the Gulf of Mexico, similar to the
> > March storm of 1993, and not of tropical origin due to its time of
> > occurrence.
> >
> > Southwest Louisiana saw the fury of the cyclone as well. It rained
> > throughout the 3rd with a "very hard wind". Flooding developed at
> > Charleston (Lake Charles) on the 4th, causing waters to encroach upon
> > area residences and sweeping away fences. Six inches of rain fell in
> > all. Showery weather continued through the 7th.
>
> http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/
>
> Records of hurricanes since 1851, a quick look at the first few years
> have Cat 1 or higher storms at or near New Orleans in 1852, 55, 56 (cat
> 4), 59, 1860 (3), 1865, etc. As those who sat through Hurrican Agnes in
> 1972 can attest (I for one) even a Cat 1 can drop an enormous amount of
> rain. Rain is the killer in New Orleans not wind speed.
>
> 2 Hurricane AGNES 14-23 JUN 75 977 1
>
> Hurricane Agnes--A minimal Category One Hurricane upon landfall in
> Apalachicola, Florida in June, 1972, it proceeded to cause devastating
> floods in Northeastern Pennsylvania as it combined with another low
> pressure system to dump heavy rains over the area. Damage from this
> storm was estimated to be about $2.1 billion dollars.
>
> History of Category 5 hurricanes
>
> By Jack Williams, USATODAY.com
>
> Category 5 hurricanes, with winds faster than 155 mph, are rare with
> only three hitting the USA in the 20th century and only 23 known to
> have reached this strength at any time during their lives between 1928
> and 2003.
>
> (Graphic: The hurricane intensity scale)
>
> The three Category 5 storms to hit the USA were the 1935 Florida Keys
> "Labor Day" hurricane, Hurricane Camille, which hit Mississippi in
> 1969, and Hurricane Andrew, which hit Dade County, Fla., on Aug. 24,
> 1992.
>
> The records aren't good enough to say whether any earlier storms that
> hit the USA would be Category 5 by today's standards.

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2002/of02-206/phy-environment/recent-hurricanes.html

This is a look at recent (ie post 1947) hurricanes around New Orleans.
1947, Betsy, Camille and Georges

Environmental Atlas of the Lake Pontchartrain Basin
Lake Pontchartrain Basin Atlas Home

Lake Pontchartrain Atlas:
Preface
Table of Contents
Introduction
Environmental Overview
Environmental Status & Trends
Restoration
Physical Environments You are at the Physical Environments section of
the Environmental Atlas of Lake Pontchartrain
Basin Geology
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Contact:
Jack Kindinger


Physical Environments: Climate | Hurricane History | Circulation | Wave
Climate | Relative Sea Level | Relative Sea Level Rise

Physical Environments - Hurricane History
Contributors: Yamazaki, Penland

* Recent Hurricanes Producing Significant Basin Damage
* Tropical Cyclones of the Louisiana Coast

As a result of its elevation near sea level, the Lake Pontchartrain
Basin is quite vulnerable to tropical storms and hurricanes. Hurricanes
are categorized by their windspeed in miles per hour (mph) (Table 4).
Hurricanes have affected the Louisiana coastline with a frequency that
peaks in September (Tables 5, 6). Hurricanes with significant monetary
or human loss are memorialized by retiring their name (Table 8). The
city of New Orleans averages 1.8 m (6 ft) below sea level, resembling a
shallow depression surrounded by levees and water. The levee system in
New Orleans is one of the most extensive in the world, but it is
designed for a Category 3 hurricane maximum. Furthermore, storm
vulnerability is made worse by ongoing wetland loss and barrier island
erosion. The Basin is home to more than one million people and is
extremely important to the vitality of the Gulf of Mexico ecosystem.
For these and many other reasons, it is important to study past
tropical storm events so that we can be better prepared for future
events. The four storms in the figure below represent some of the most
devastating, and therefore some of the most studied storms, in the Lake
Pontchartrain Basin during the Twentieth Century. <more>

Nice map at the original site

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