Re: Natural Disasters and Their Root Cause

On Sat, 07 Jun 2008 10:24:32 +0100, Graham P Davis <newsboy@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:

Scotty wrote:

The warming started 400 years ago, long before the start of the Industrial
Revolution. It is debatable that we might have reached a turning point.
The warmest year in the last century was 1934, the second warmest was 1998
and it has been cooling ever since. The temps for 2007 puts us back to
temps that last occurred in the '80s.

Where do you get this nonsense about 1934 being the warmest year last
century? It wasn't even the warmest in that decade (3rd after 1938 and
1937). 1998 was the warmest year last century. This century has seen two
years warmer than 1998 - 2005 and 2007.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080116114150.htm

The data processing flaw did not alter the ordering of the warmest years on
record and the global ranks were unaffected. In the contiguous 48 states, the
statistical tie among 1934, 1998 and 2005 as the warmest year(s) was unchanged.
In the current analysis, in the flawed analysis, and in the published GISS
analysis, 1934 is the warmest year in the contiguous states (but not globally)
by an amount (magnitude of the order of 0.01°C) that is an order of magnitude
smaller than the certainty.

The figures for 2007 are out.

http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature+Monitors+Report+Widescale+Global+Cooling/article10866.htm

Here is a graph of the last 240 months, don't forget that the warmest year
last century was 1932 and 1998 was the second highest.
http://images.dailytech.com/nimage/7390_large_hadcrut.jpg

Written by Aratus
Friday, 29 February 2008

It seems that worldwide temperatures have dropped this last year to the
extent of wiping out more than half of the last 100 years of global warming...
In one year!

All four of the major temperature tracking facilities (Hadley, NASA's GISS,
UAH, RSS) report the same findings.

Here are some good articles:
http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature+Monitors+Report+Widescale+Global+Cooling/article10866.htm
and
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/02/19/january-2008-4-sources-say-globally-cooler-in-the-past-12-months/
and
http://www.dailytech.com/Solar+Activity+Diminishes+Researchers+Predict+Another+Ice+Age/article10630.htm
and
http://www.washingtontimes.com/article/20071219/COMMENTARY/10575140
and
http://www.nowpublic.com/world/global-cooling

Al Gore is now trying to convince us that we have acted too quickly, too
rashly, that we have, by some human miracle undone all of our carbon evils and
made the planet cooler... ? Hello, how stupid does he think we actually are?
China is still producing 3 new (coal powered) power stations per month
(imagine where we would be if they had stopped).
Maybe it's because of the "reduced emissions" tires that came standard with
my new car .

Seriously, is any one else concerned that politicised science can mobalise
the whole Western World so quickly with such little evidence? Thankfully all we
will have lost this time is energy, a little time and money. Hopefully now we
can loose a few redundant jobs too. But what if some computer model based theory
comes up that is not so easy to falsify? Has one more perhaps already come
up?

This article gives a very good description of the problem of assumptions
with computer based models and why we should not, ever, act on them:
http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/story.html?id=332289

Best we keep our wits, and our common sense, about us.

See also 35 Inconvenient truths........
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/monckton/goreerrors.html

Scotty
--
All science is Physics, everything else is just stamp-collecting.
---Ernest Rutherford.
.

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