Re: Slipping and Sliding in Wash. State

On May 29, 6:47 pm, Jo Schaper <jo345sch765a...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Petra wrote:
Hi Jo,

You're so right in the "never say never".  The folks who live in
Orting, Washington have been told they will have 45 minutes
to get out if a lahar comes screeching down the side of Mt.
Rainier.  However, no one has contemplated that the warning
sirens might not work or they could be a delay in them working
thus their 45 minutes may not exist at all.  This has occurred in
tornado alley more than once and the results were clear with
many deaths.  

With some of that vaunted 9/11 homeland security money, my town of 6000
bought what used to be called air raid sirens with voice capability.
They can broadcast a public alert beacon, info from the National Weather
Service, the state SEMA, or someone from the mayor's office or police
department can get on there from a microphone and use it as a PA in case
of an escape from the local prison, or hazmat train derailment.

Sounds like a good idea, right? I'm not so sure. It goes off the first
of the month at noon, as its monthly test. In March, when Missouri gears
up for tornado season, it was tied into the SEMA system, and they
broadcast as if it were a tornado warning. The only reason I knew it
wasn't (it was a rainy nasty day) was the system proceeded to call a
tornado warning for all 114 counties and the city of St. Louis
(enumerated by name.) That took about 15 minutes.

Testing is needed to make sure the system works, and having grown up
with the radio EBS announcements, that's OK.

But I wonder about the problem of "crying wolf" and people expecting to
wait for authorities to tell them what to do. This system also kicks in
anytime there is an Amber Alert issued for a missing child anywhere in
St. Louis metro. (Great way to sneak up on a perp, right?) 24/7, I'm all
for having it go off for an actual tornado warning (tornado spotted,
location and direction noted) but last winter it was going off for 3"
snowstorms, and just a couple of weeks ago, I was awakened to an early
morning hail on my windows...10 minutes later, after the hail had ceased
and it was just rain, a severe thunderstorm warning was broadcast.

I seriously doubt the system would be useful in warning people about
quakes. There just isn't the lead time. And I'm afraid if the nukes were
ever actually on incoming, people would ignore the siren.

I know I'm dating myself as a Cold War kid, but we actually had
emergency preparedness training for several weeks in 7th grade and basic
first aid and survival skills taught in school-- much more extensive
than just hide under a desk and KYAGB. Almost 40 years later, I still
have the book, and a more current Red Cross first aid book, and know
where they are.  I don't know how useful it would be today, (and hope I
never find out) but we were taught to deal with The Morning After as
much on our own as possible.

The authorities will be dealing with people like the woman who, during
our recent record floods, loaded her mother, her pets and her furniture
into her employer's horse trailer, pulled by an F250 pickup and drove
right into the river where the truck flooded. It was a couple of hour
ordeal to get her and companions out, with the water still rising around
the truck, because she wouldn't leave her pets and her stuff, even
though the FD got a boat out to rescue her and her mother. She refused
to leave. They finally got her and her stuff out by winching the
truck/trailer. By this time news crews were on the scene. When she got
to shore, one of the newsmen asked why she hadn't called for assistance
from her house, left the night before (when the road was dry) or
otherwise taken notice of either the river rising, all the rain, or news
stories about lowlands being flooded (water was mostly coming from
upstream, and it was, pardon the pun, a saturation effort from the media
on upcoming river levels). Her response was, "I expected someone to come
knock on my door and tell me it was time to leave."

I'm afraid the air raid siren will make people complacent as they wait
for the knock on the door which never comes.

Hi Jo,

You're soooo right!!!!!

Leaving an area during a potential disaster is not always adviseable.
Years ago
many contemplated people leaving an area with an earthquake prediction
and that
really would bring on more problems than it would solve. While some
scientists think
they might wish to warn people of a M 7.0 quake it's really better
never to hit that high
a mark, but perhaps say a M 6.0 or greater thus not creating panic,
but urging preparedness
instead. And as you so validly pointed out leaving may indeed cause
more harm than good.

Our quake detector research is expanding to the New Madrid area
shortly and I'm curious to
see if the results will be similar to those we've experienced along
the west coast. There's
always that question that rattles round.... are earthquakes generic or
something
so much more????

I think there will always be too many questions and never enough
answers, but I'd take an
earthquake any day over a tornado or a flood, though the eastern US is
certainly very
beautiful and much more green than California most of the year. I
think there's nothing
more captivating than viewing kudzu as it takes over everything in its
path and noting what
was a clear and straight line becoming rounded by the vines.

Petra

.

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