Re: Unusual Earthquakes Measured Off Oregon
- From: Skywise <into@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sun, 04 May 2008 05:21:31 GMT
Damon Hill <damon1SIX1@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in
news:Xns9A93C55A1ABCEdamon161attbicom@xxxxxxxxx:
"Robert Flory" <wyogeo@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in
news:J6CdnaB4jNy4LoHVnZ2dnUVZ_rzinZ2d@xxxxxxxxxxxxx:
<Snipola>
<Snipola>People see tends that don't exist, but given the processes operating
here I doubt the events are truly random any more that events on the
San Andreas are random. Unpredictable, yes. random, No.
But apparently they ARE random, taken individually. In aggregate,
the activity should eventually result in a much larger event, or
events.
This is like a page right out of any chaos theory text.
Chaotic dynamic systems are deterministic yet unpredictible.
Given the formula, you can determine the next number in the
sequence by iterating hte next step int he computation, but
you cannot predict what it will be based on the previous
information.
An example is computing the digits of pi. You will always
get the same sequence of digits. Yet, no amount of analysis
will tell you what the next digit will be without actually
iterating the formula to get the next digit. If you don't
know the formula, you can never predict what the next digit
will be.
I see earthquakes very similarly, and we don't have the
formula yet. This is a VERY simplistic description. In
reality, I'd venture to say that earthquakes are the result
of a multitude of dynamic systems, each with their own formula.
The errors compound exponentially. And with thousands of
interacting systems just to describe one fault... well...
I think you get the picture.
It may be that we will never be able to predict earthquakes.
Certainly not all. We can not ever know enough information.
At the limit, the amount of data is equal to the sum total
knowledge of every elementary particle of the entire planet.
The most efficient computer is the universe itself. A computer
powerful enough to process all this data would be larger than
the planet. (at the limit)
I still feel we may yet have some predictive capability for
certain fault systems. We may learn enough about them to
understand that section. But what we learn about one fault
will likely not be applicable to the next as it's not the
same exact system. Similar, maybe, but not exact.
By predictive ablity, I mean being able to say something like
that there's a 90% chance of a mag 6 quake in Anza the first
week of June. Kind of like weather forecasts today. It won't
be exact, but good enough to be useful. Yet, just like the
sudden tornado outbreak, there will be devastation we simply
miss.
Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?
.
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