Re: Scoring Probabilistic Predictions.

On Mar 1, 3:41 pm, Petra <petras...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

Petra;

Roger, I have been told repeatedly by many people who have know you
over the years that you were a statistician and computer programmer,
but never engaged in geophysical research or ever wrote any papers
about any discoveries.

You couldn't have talked to too many people who knew me because there
weren't that many who did.
In any case, not all scientists are research scientists. You might
consider the classified reports on nuclear explosions as research and
there were a lot of those I put out

(Please don't count your evaluation reports of
late as they don't qualify).

Why not? They were produces by properly conducted research.



Yes, Indeed I have two sources of finding out when faults are about to
break and one is the research groups endeavors and that wonderful
scientific instrument which beats the hell out of anything anyone has
anywhere. Do we recall the instruments in Parkfield recorded only 15
SECONDS of data prior to the earthquake and I predicted it the night
before it happened. And the unit I've mentioned was part of the
reason we predicted the San Jose, CA earthquake.

Ah yes, your secret instrument that nobody in the scientific community
knows anything about. Pardon me if I'm not impressed by unsupported
claims.


Roger, you said something to me privately about his program which was
not supportive and I suggest you refresh your memory about that at
present.

i said the same thing to him and he agreed. The point is that his
predictions were accurate and got more hits than yours. And you didn't
hit 80% in the ones I looked at either.


.

If you continue in your reclining position you're going to get
yourself used to what it feels like in a coffin and I highly recommend
you shake your booty before it decides to give up on you. And that's
a very caring comment.

You're right there. My dr said the same thing.

Roger



.

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