Re: Scoring Probabilistic Predictions.

On Feb 29, 11:16 am, Petra <petras...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Feb 28, 3:04 pm, rog...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx wrote:




Petra;

You said " Of course I know that different faults have different
probabilities.
What we don't know is how close they are to failure"

The answer is not "we" to begin with because you're not a scientist

Well Petra, if my 34 year career as a geophysicist for the federal
government doesn't qualify me as a scientist I don't know what would.


and secondly "you" don't know when a fault is going to fail because
you don't have any knowledge of such things nor do you have any
equipment that works in that regard either.

And you do? please explain.

Despite your endless attempts to minimize what I can do you fail to
mention I'm right 80% of the time which only leaves 20% when I'm not
right. That's better than anyone else has done to date and if you
think you can do better, I suggest you get out of your chair and try
going for a six mile hike everyday, eat a lot of carrots and celery
and work out when you're not walking. It improves brain cell capacity
and affords one new ideas which equates to solving problems better.

Skywise was right 92% of the time IIRC and neither his nor yours means
a thing. The difference is, he admits it.

You need 92.7 Energy Cardio Radio with Craig and Fernando every day!
You can get it on your computer, go for it!

Nah. Whenever I get the urge to exercise I lie down until it goes
away.

Roger

Petra

.