Re: Scoring Probabilistic Predictions.
- From: rogerh@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Thu, 28 Feb 2008 15:04:36 -0800 (PST)
On Feb 28, 3:59 pm, Petra <petras...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Feb 28, 1:44 pm, rog...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx wrote:
On Feb 28, 11:16 am, t...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx (Thomas A. Russ) wrote:
OK, a new methodology question here.
What would be the proper way to score probabilistic predictions?
What I mean is a prediction of the form, "There is a p% chance of event
E occurring during time period T."
How does one score such a prediction, and how does one determine
statistical significance?
Off the top of my head, it would seem that one would need many more
events and predictions in order to establish statistical significance
when one has such probabilistic predictions.
Presumably the null hypothesis is the background chance of the
particular event occurring. The test hypothesis is the difference
between the background probability and the predicted probability.
So, if to take a concrete example, let us suppose that for some event E,
the background probability is 30% and a prediction says there is a 65%
chance of E occurring during some given time period. The test would be
to see if the additional 35% probability is statistically significant.
Does anyone have any particular ideas on what that computation would
look like?
Hmmm. A bit of Googling found this abstract, but I don't have access to
the full text.
<http://projecteuclid.org/DPubS?service=UI&version=1.0&verb=Display&ha...>
Also: <http://tinyurl.com/yw9su3>
--
Thomas A. Russ, USC/Information Sciences Institute
Dr Russ;
Personally, I ignore such probability statements because most of them
are just wild ass guesses. The definition of a prediction includes
probability but most predictors give confidence estimates instead.
Roger- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
Roger,
I guess that's why you're not a scientist, because study upon study
shows clearly which faults have high probabilities. Why don't you
talk to David Schwartz about the Rodgers Creek Fault or perhaps Jim
Leutgart (sp?) about the Hayward Fault. Then you might be better
informed. For Gosh stakes these people know what they're talking
about. They can't predict exactly when, but believe me the words
"soon" and "2008 is the Year" for the Hayward Fault are right on the
mark.
The probably is that you're out of circulation. You don't attend
meetings of any kind or keep in touch so you've lost touch with what's
current.
Petra
Petra;
I was responding to Dr Russ, not you and we were not talking about
scientists.
Of course I know that different faults have different probabilities.
What we don't know is how close they are to failure.
Roger
.
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