Re: THE TRAVELER'S FORECAST 03/01/08 - 03/15/08

On Feb 28, 12:56 pm, Petra <petras...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Feb 28, 9:00 am, rog...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx wrote:

Petra;

A. If you don't get the publics attention focused on the possibility
that an earthquake may happen if they don't hear it or see it in a way
that's new they won't be motivated to prepare. And as I've said a
million times over, The Traveler's Forecast is a medium to encourage
earthquake safety.

Okay.

B. There is no reason to frighten people in the process of warning
them. You seem to be overly concerned about someone predicting a M
9.0 for LA and I can tell you, it won't ever be me because it won't
happen anyway and furthermore I think if one just says a M 6.0 may
happen, if the public doesn't get ready for that, then it's a moot
point.

But a small quake won't get their attention enough to do anything.

C. A forecast holds a lower threshold than a prediction and people
should think about what they will do if an earthquake strikes when
they are traveling. Seldom do they think about high rise fires, but
what are they going to do in an unreinforced masonry building in some
foreign country? They should think about it and maybe with a
Traveler's Forecast they might consider it.

I doubt it. Most people aren't up on foreign building codes.

D. It's quite possible to follow-up on the forecasted area's using
local service provider listings and since "they are there", versus we
"who are not there" then that's certainly prudent. And you and I
already agreed that the Traveler's Forecast is not subject to
evaluation because they are not predictions, just forecasts. Do you
remember that?

No but I would agree.

E. A scientist in a foreign country thought this was a really good
idea, but he wants to write tourism earthquake safety brochures that
can be handed out when people make reservations for vacations. It's a
good idea, but it might dampen travel plans a bit, so I don't know,
but you see how one good idea can be a catalyst to other good ideas?
Sharing, that's what it's all about.

Yeah, I can just see that. Don't come to our country, you may get
killed in a small eqrthquake!

F. Now tell me which kid in which country do you believe is not worthy
of saving? Should this be limited to only citizens of countries who
are rich, or do you think the poor deserve to survive as well? I'd
like Californian's to have a forecast too, but the powers that be
don't want it here, so what can I do? I do what I can in praying for
common sense to reach them and decisions to be made in the favor of
the public and not the institution you and they so staunchly defend.


It's very apparent to me that those who have no ability to have
original thought are spending a lot of time weighing anchor in
criticizing this work, so I suggest that they should get to work, do
their reseach and if they can come up with something better, let them
go for it. It takes no less than six hours to do one single forecast
and that's after my computer program spits it out and I have to refine
it. And do these nimno's understand someone had to create a program
and pay for it? Probably not.

6 hours? You could do it by hand in that time. You need a better
program.

And I'll ask what has Tom Jordan got to show for his $1.2 million?
Where's his predictions, where's his forecast? He hired the wrong
crew I think. Of course, that's just a humble opinion, but a learned
one.

He doesn't make predictions, he evaluates predictive methods.

Parkfield cost in excess of $400 million, SAFOD is at $17.5 million at
the onset and these folks haven't got one thing to show for their
efforts. I think it's time to think outside of the box and do
something and I'm doing it.

Uh huh...

Roger, since you've got so much time on your hands, why don't you keep
track of the results of the Traveler's Forecast and you can stream
through twenty web sites a day looking for the quakes that match the
forecasts and that should keep you busy for a couple of weeks. I
can't offfer to pay you because no one's paying me yet. But if
someone wants to, then I'll share the profits with you. How about
that?

Sounds too much like work. I'm a programmer, not an accountant.

Roger
Petra

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: THE TRAVELERS FORECAST 03/01/08 - 03/15/08
    ... that an earthquake may happen if they don't hear it or see it in a way ... Traveler's Forecast they might consider it. ... evaluation because they are not predictions, ... Don't come to our country, ...
    (sci.geo.earthquakes)
  • Re: THE TRAVELERS FORECAST 03/01/08 - 03/15/08
    ... that an earthquake may happen if they don't hear it or see it in a way ... Traveler's Forecast they might consider it. ... local service provider listings and since "they are there", ... through twenty web sites a day looking for the quakes that match the ...
    (sci.geo.earthquakes)
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    ... Just like your last so called forecast. ... opinions/predictions just as there are those that pick up on the daily ... Earthquake in Northern Japan on the 13th of this month? ... The only way to assess the ability of a forecaster is to monitor ...
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  • Re: Making Sense of the chart
    ... Pressures & low pressures are easy enough to figure out but what ... appear to have missed the 6.8earthquake in Honshu, ... You missed the Sichuan earthquake completely and this one in ... proper forecast to try to redeem your theories and set everyone agog ...
    (uk.sci.weather)
  • Re: Making Sense of the chart
    ... Pressures & low pressures are easy enough to figure out but what ... appear to have missed the 6.8earthquake in Honshu, ... proper forecast to try to redeem your theories and set everyone agog ... I care not to. ...
    (uk.sci.weather)