Re: Seeking Common Ground in Earthquake Prediction Delivery

On Sun, 17 Feb 2008 13:30:41 -0600, Jo Schaper
<jo345sch765aper@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

Petra wrote:
Hi Everyone,

Cathryn and Michael (weatherlawyer) brought up the tip of the iceberg
on this one on another thread and I thought maybe we could toss this
around a bit and see if we can find some logical common ground about
who has a right to issue public earthquake predictions in a
professional manner.


As you all know I'm in the process of setting up a new early warning
seismic network in the Bay Area, but when one or more of the network
units indicates a moderate to large earthquake is going to strike the
Bay Area I can't issue a professional prediction unless I can prove to
the council that places which have had earthquakes in the past will
continue to have them in the future. I can do it as an amateur, but I
don't want to because I want the warning to be taken seriously and
especially so because it's based upon years of experience using the
instrument.

I don't know what your academic background is, Petra, but unless you
have an academic background in the field,(with pieces of paper from some
institution to back you up), an employer with political connections
willing to back you, or some independent verification of your methods,
(including events and perhaps statistics) the state of California most
likely cannot certify you as a professional. The nature of prediction
(of anything, from earthquakes to dice at clean game in Las Vegas to
what sex an infant will be in the early stages) is uncertain under short
term conditions.

The State of California has no such certification as a
"professional earthquake predictor".

--
************* DAVE HATUNEN (hatunen@xxxxxxx) *************
* Tucson Arizona, out where the cacti grow *
* My typos & mispellings are intentional copyright traps *
.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: S. California or Mexicali, a Warning!
    ... few years it is quite possible an Earthquake, at the " end of Imperial ... And how does this area compare with the Keilis-Borok prediction? ... In early 2004, a group of scientists at the University of California, ... Thomas A. Russ, USC/Information Sciences Institute ...
    (sci.geo.earthquakes)
  • Re: S. California or Mexicali, a Warning!
    ... few years it is quite possible an Earthquake, at the " end of Imperial ... And how does this area compare with the Keilis-Borok prediction? ... In early 2004, a group of scientists at the University of California, ...
    (sci.geo.earthquakes)
  • Re: OT: interesting global warming quote found elsewhwere
    ... They absolutely do not share info with the market. ... And the recent bounce in oil prices owes much of the overshoot to speculators driving the price ever higher and product scarcer. ... The researchers have to be extremely careful about what they disclose because the mere mention of increased risk of an earthquake in obvious locations can affect property values and in a hyper litigious society like the US it gets hairy. ... The Japanese are still trying pretty hard at earthquake prediction. ...
    (sci.electronics.design)
  • Re: Whats nasa thinking
    ... California, and he got up in front of the class one day and stated that from ... prediction that was possible but extremely unlikely. ... where the quakes shake loose all of the loose nuts and ... But on the TV news that night they announced that we did have an earthquake as ...
    (sci.space.shuttle)
  • Re: Jim Berkland Earthquake Predictions
    ... > for scientists or the work they do. ... > predict earthquakes" is when I look at the Parkfield Earthquake ... > practiced prediction, but that was the least of what happened. ... Sir J-P lives in the free-world, ...
    (sci.geo.earthquakes)
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