Re: Anybody know what's behind the swarm around The Geysers, CA?

On Thu, 10 Jan 2008 00:48:16 -0800 (PST), Petra
<petrasrcf@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

On Jan 9, 9:12 pm, Skywise <i...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Petra <petras...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in news:14eaf1e8-2190-4b07-b892-
058b33fba...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx:





On Jan 8, 9:44 pm, Skywise <i...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Petra <petras...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in news:705c080e-40bb-4f52-9bb3-
2fa0bf00f...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx:

<Snipola>> You know how people are, if they don't pay for it they think it

doesn't have any merit

<Snipola>

The solution seems obvious...start charging for your predictions. ;)

Brian
--http://www.skywise711.com-Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ:http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions":http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?

Hi Brian,

Well, as you know you can't do that in California due to XY&Z.

Awwww...comeon....since when did a little old law stop anybody? ;)

[this is all toungue-in-cheek, btw, in case it isn't obvious]

Brian


Brian,

Let's be clear about one thing: According to the USGS an M6.5 could
strike on the Hayward Fault at any time. That's their forecast/
prediction and I do believe they're right.

Of course tehy're right, espcailly if it could happen "any time",
i.e., this afternoon or a thousand years from now. It's not a
question of "if", but "when".

One has to be careful with earthquake forecasts.
http://climate.weather.com/articles/earthquake110107.html says
"Scientists estimate the Hayward Fault has a 27 percent chance of
causing a quake of magnitude 6.7 or greater.t that's pretty
meaningless unles a time frame is given, say "a 27 percent chance
in the next thirty years".

http://www.ebdailynews.com/article/2007-11-1-quake says "In 2003,
the USGS estimated there is a 62 percent chance the Bay Area will
experience a magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake in the next
three decades, with 27 percent of that probability attributed to
the Hayward fault ..." That's more like it.

And according to the Red
Cross only 17% of Californian's are ready the next earthquake. The
California Department of Insurance reports only 17% of Californians'
have earthquake insurance compared to 46% before Northridge.

Well, duh. Insurance companies stopped writing earthquake
insurance for California *because* of the Northridge quake.

Are we
ready? NO. Will we be before the next M 6.0 or greater quake
arrives? NO. Under the circumstances would another prediction be
beneficial? Probably Not.

No-brainer for some people. The forecast gives a thirty year
window, so we'll prepare tomorrow.

What's wrong with all of the above? Only one thing. Everyone has
heard this same story over and over again in the same monotone voice
and they're tuning it out. Could it be done differently. You Bet
Cha. Do the powers that be who could do this differently want to?

What is it the pwoers that be are supposed to do, exactly? Pay
you to retrofit your house?

No. It's the same old song. There's no money, even though it could be
done for nearly nothing.

No money for what?

And what is on the agenda at the California Seismic Safety Commission
this year? Nothing new. Their work this year is devoted to reviewing
the data collection to determine if Calfiornia Schools meet the
requirements of the Field Act. That's a project that was funded three
years ago and now they're doing the tally. But insofar as I am aware,
there are no new legislative directives for 2008.

What legislateive directives do you suggest?


--
************* DAVE HATUNEN (hatunen@xxxxxxx) *************
* Tucson Arizona, out where the cacti grow *
* My typos & mispellings are intentional copyright traps *
.

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