Re: S. California or Mexicali, a Warning!
- From: tar@xxxxxxxxxxxxx (Thomas A. Russ)
- Date: 15 Sep 2006 09:28:06 -0700
betterapproach@xxxxxxxxx writes:
In the paper of Prof. B.F.Howell, (BBSA, Aug., 2005), he says that in
few years it is quite possible an Earthquake, at the " end of Imperial
Valley". Upon a private mail, many months ago, he fears that could
happen this year 2006. I answer him, that it was not for the first half
year, but, If I would have some support for a more serious study...
But, now, It is neccesary a Warning: from now, to October' 05th,
Lat.33.4N , Long. 116.5W, and a radius of 200 Km.Magn.6 to 7.
Alexis.
Why just until October 5th?
And how does this area compare with the Keilis-Borok prediction?
Let's see: The area is much, much larger, at pi*200*200 = 125,000 square
kilometers. It does cover the same area, and then some. The center is
near Anza, a bit south of Palm Desert. The 200km radius extends the
area to cover most of the Los Angeles, and out west past Catalina. On the
east it covers Blythe and extends about 75km into Arizona, south about
100km into Mexico. To the north, it reaches up to Barstow and just
misses Needles, Lancaster and Santa Clarita.
For Keilis-Borok map, see
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqinthenews/2004/KB_map.gif
From http://www.answers.com/topic/earthquake-prediction :
In early 2004, a group of scientists at the University of California,
Los Angeles, lead by Dr. Vladimir Keilis-Borok, predicted that a quake
similar in strength to the San Simeon earthquake would occur in a 12,000
square mile (31,100 km) area of Southern California by September of that
year. The odds were given as 50/50.
In April 2004, the California Earthquake Predicition Evaluation Council
(CEPEC) evaluated Keilis-Borok's prediction and reported to the
California State Office of Emergency Services[[4]]. CEPEC concluded that
the "uncertainty along with the large geographic area included in the
prediction (about 12,400 square miles) leads (us) to conclude that the
results do not at this time warrant any special policy actions in
California.â?? The predicted time window came and went with no
significant earthquake.
A summary of Keilis-Borok's record from
http://www.oes.ca.gov/Operational/OESHome.nsf/ALL/D2D6A535CF5D369188256F6D00743B0E?OpenDocument
shows that there have been 5 predictions, with 2 hits and 3 misses.
--
Thomas A. Russ, USC/Information Sciences Institute
.
- References:
- S. California or Mexicali, a Warning!
- From: betterapproach
- S. California or Mexicali, a Warning!
- Prev by Date: Re: S. California or Mexicali, a Warning!
- Next by Date: Re: S. California or Mexicali, a Warning!
- Previous by thread: Re: S. California or Mexicali, a Warning!
- Next by thread: alt.earthquake.predictions
- Index(es):
Relevant Pages
|
