Re: another prediction review article

George,

LET US BE PERFECTLY CLEAR.

Has it occurred to anyone yet that some information they receive is not
clear? It's true, it isn't. I'll cite two examples for you. First,
last year I watched a wonderful TV Documentary about Bay Area faults
and in the program they said a 6.5 earthquake could occur AT ANY TIME.

Now: This is what is on the USGS Northern California page:

Earthquake Probabilities for the San Francisco Bay Area
USGS and other scientists conclude that there is a 62% probability of
at least one magnitude 6.7 or greater quake, capable of causing
widespread damage, striking the San Francisco Bay region before 2032.

I see .2 of a magntude earthquake between the video and the written
word and the people in the video are the same people who work at the
Northern California USGS office.

But further you have to know the truth. 30 year probabilities are
based upon the average length of a home mortgage and have been since
forever. It has nothing whatsoever to do with anything that is real.

Is the public confused? Perhaps. Remember in the 1940's and 1950's
the big kahuna quake was supposed to occur on the Southern SAF. Has
it arrived yet?

Overall, everyone who lives in California knows that ONE DAY an
earthquake will come, but like everyone else, they don't think it will
hurt them. People can't live like that. But I bet if you took the
same people and put them in tornado alley they would buy tornado
insurance and they would probably build an underground shelter. It's
just human nature.

Petra

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Global Seismic Forecast - Long term.
    ... I sincerely doubt that the USGS changed its methodology on probabilistic ... Earthquake Probabilities: [Note that, on the East Coast, much longer periods ... I'm forecasting a particularily seismically active 2007. ...
    (sci.geo.earthquakes)
  • Re: another prediction review article
    ... > and in the program they said a 6.5 earthquake could occur AT ANY TIME. ... > Now: This is what is on the USGS Northern California page: ... My point was your last one, that "everyone who lives in ... George ...
    (sci.geo.earthquakes)
  • Earthquakes Killed Nearly 90,000 in 2005, Experts Say
    ... Survey (USGS) and confirmed by the United Nations Office for Coordination of ... In 2004, the third deadliest earthquake year on record, more than 283,000 ... This event was likely the trigger for a magnitude 8.7 quake, ... monitoring and reporting capabilities to speed earthquake response efforts ...
    (sci.geo.earthquakes)
  • Re: Any IASPEI Members Present?
    ... USGS Earthquake Magnitude Policy ... authoritative network in southern California and the USGS/UC Berkeley ...
    (sci.geo.earthquakes)
  • Re: California is FUCKED! USGS Says 99.7% Chance of Big Earthquake in Next 30 Years!
    ... If the earthquake could be configured to take out Marin ... > as CA has a gigantic economy by itself ... of America? ... And given this USGS report we'll probably start ...
    (alt.politics)