Re: Jim Berkland Earthquake Predictions

I would guess you know that there are a range of experts in the
hydraulic response to various stimuli, including Manga, Brodsky,
Rojstaczer and Silver. Paul Silver has been monitoring the level in
water wells many place for quite a while now. They have been searching
fruitlessly for hydraulic precursors for decades.

The punch line of research is to have a model. Many of us figure that
if no precursory deformation is be enough to even be detectable, and no
foreshocks down to negative magnitudes are visible in a case like
Parkfield in the hours before the quake, the chances of it lighting the
sky, cracking the Earth's surface, or overpowering the Earth's local
magnetic field are slim to none.

It is insulting to say scientists shred data, and I hope you would lose
your confidence in anyone who would say that. I've never seen data
shredded, we love anomalies, and Parkfield has been a hotbed of
anomalies publicized that did not check out, and some that remain
puzzling.

The deformation in Iceland is rapid and shallow. Experience has shown
that deformation DOES accelerate before some of their earthquakes, and
groundwater moves with the deformation. Earthquakes on ridges also
sometimes show accelerating deformation signaling increased rates of
earthquakes, as described by a paper Tom is co-author published in
Nature recently. The ground responds in different ways in different
places, which is not surprising.

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