Re: Jim Berkland Earthquake Predictions

Petra,

People have been trying to predict earthquakes for 100 years. The
intensity of the research waxes and wanes, but there are always
knowledgeable and on-target people looking at the latest data. The
lack of progress so far reflects the absence of reliable precursors in
the data being recorded, not blindness in the scientists. Parkfield is
front and center is revealing the lack of short-term precursory
activity many had been hoping would reveal itself.

Jim Berkland does not fall in the class of knowledgeable people, if
only for the reason that he has failed repeatedly to EVER apply the
most rudimentary statistics to show whether any of his claims beat
random chance.

It is amazing to watch an apparently literate and inquisitive person
like him issue predictions every month for decades, but never do the
simple tests whether the predictions are meaningful. When pressed, he
becomes shrill, gives anecdotal evidence, and cites the conspiracy of
"High Science" for his lack of credibility.

We all hope earthquakes turn out to be predictable, and Tom's new SCEC
CSEP effort will follow such leads as appear, and complaints about the
course of the investigation appear to be arising from wishful thinking.

.

Relevant Pages

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  • Re: THE TRAVELERS FORECAST 03/01/08 - 03/15/08
    ... Following up a bit on the hits. ... the number of earthquakes for those time periods are shown below ... each of the successful predictions. ...
    (sci.geo.earthquakes)