Re: Jim Berkland Earthquake Predictions

Petra, you might have noticed that I can maintain breezy conversations
better than thoughtful ones, but I do have a couple of short answers
for you:

>For six years I have studied the behavioral patterns of scientists and
>yes, they do have some. One is quick to understand that it is truly
>rare for anyone to write a paper on an original idea. I don't think

Couldn't agree more.

>If you create a stigma regarding something such is the case of
>earthquake prediction it ends up going underground or squelchs the
>desire for one to undertake such endeavor for they will be chastised by
>their colleagues, labeled and eventually unemployed. I had thoughts

Ditto.

>Parkfield Earthquake
>Predicton Experiment. This was supposed to be a place where one
>practiced prediction, but that was the least of what happened. It did
>not ever live up to what it was designed to do and at one heafty price
>as well. It was around $100 Million dollars and where's the results?

Scientists have learned a lot at Parkfield: maybe the biggest lesson is
that we know quite a bit about where earthquakes will occur over the
long run ("gap theory," essentially) but not very much about where they
will strike in the short term.

>The only person who seems to have an interest in taking another look is
>Tom Jordan of SCEC in his Earthquake Prediction Collaborary and yet I
>am not at all certain he wants to see anything truly new. That

Jordan is trying to establish a framework from which prediction
research can move forward--and this means with support--on a firm
footing.

>If cancer researchers were told a hundred thousand times over that they
>would never find the cure and their colleagues treated them the way
>geoscientists treat each other,

If you think biomedical researchers are a fundamentally different breed
from geoscientists, you need to talk to my husband.

But that's beside the point. The point is that you misconstrue the
implications of the Richter quote. I think you will, as I have, come
to like Charlie once you get to know him. He was one of the most
ardent critics of prediction efforts that he saw as misguided; he was
also an incredibly insightful and open-minded scientist, even late in
life. Late in his life an interviewer asked him if prediction would
ever be possible: he said that he didn't know...that nothing is as
unpredictable as the development of an active field of research. This
is a very far cry from statements that other "chaos-afficiandos" have
made more recently, that earthquakes will never be predictable.
Richter's scorn wasn't aimed at earthquake prediction, it was aimed at
fools and charlatans.

>We are no further along in predicting earthquakes than primordial man
>throwing rocks at the Moon and there are no good excuses.

Maybe 5-10 years ago I read that, for all the advances in breast cancer
treatment, death rates had not changed at all, which suggests that
early detection and aggressive treatment only serve to prolong the time
period that women are cancer patients. The situation might have
changed by now, I sure hope so, but what does one conclude about all of
the cancer research done prior to 1995?

Susan

.

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  • Re: Jim Berkland Earthquake Predictions
    ... for scientists or the work they do. ... predict earthquakes" is when I look at the Parkfield Earthquake ... practiced prediction, but that was the least of what happened. ... throwing rocks at the Moon and there are no good excuses. ...
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