Re: Jim Berkland Earthquake Predictions
- From: alan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx (Alan)
- Date: Sat, 21 Jan 2006 10:00 +0000 (GMT Standard Time)
In article <1137825294.788952.313100@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
petrasrcf@xxxxxxxxxxx (Petra) wrote:
> Susan,
>
> I would like to make a point from what I believe is a learned point of
> view; one not biased by being a scientist. And when I say what I'm
> about to say, it does not mean at all that I have any lack of respect
> for scientists or the work they do.
>
> For six years I have studied the behavioral patterns of scientists and
> yes, they do have some. One is quick to understand that it is truly
> rare for anyone to write a paper on an original idea. I don't think
> I've seen one that does not include borrowing from many others in the
> process. So somewhere in there amidst the borrowing is one more
> persons point of view. There's plenty more about which I don't care
> to elaborate on at this point in time.
>
> If you create a stigma regarding something such is the case of
> earthquake prediction it ends up going underground or squelchs the
> desire for one to undertake such endeavor for they will be chastised by
> their colleagues, labeled and eventually unemployed. I had thoughts
> many years ago that this could not be undertaken by anyone who wasn't
> retired and pretty much Keilis-Borok is exactly the profile of the
> individual I imagined.
>
> Science may seem to be for a changing world, except the part that jumps
> up every now and then and kills people who just so happen to live in
> buildings near fault lines. My favorite topic in regard to "we don't
> predict earthquakes" is when I look at the Parkfield Earthquake
> Predicton Experiment. This was supposed to be a place where one
> practiced prediction, but that was the least of what happened. It did
> not ever live up to what it was designed to do and at one heafty price
> as well. It was around $100 Million dollars and where's the results?
> An A alert only had a 37% chance of occurring. What's that all about?
> If I recall correctly there was only one A alert issued and that was in
> 1993.
>
> I hate to say this, but the system which governs what we the public
> receive may well be responsible for not keeping us alive. That which
> does not foster growth and development kills the creativity which could
> result in productive end product. This is just not good enough. Not
> today or any day.
>
> The only person who seems to have an interest in taking another look is
> Tom Jordan of SCEC in his Earthquake Prediction Collaborary and yet I
> am not at all certain he wants to see anything truly new. That
> remains to be seen.
>
> If cancer researchers were told a hundred thousand times over that they
> would never find the cure and their colleagues treated them the way
> geoscientists treat each other, millions of people would be dead today
> for the lack of a sustained effort. So if survivial in earthquake
> country is dependant upon those who should work on earthquake
> prediction exclusively, then they should get on with it. We need
> results, not excuses and for those who go, they can leave their egos at
> the doorstep.
>
> One cold heartless scientist everyone knows and loves went on TV after
> the San Simeon quake and said they should have known it was going to
> happen because it happens about every 50 years. Two people just died,
> no one went there and told them this was going to happen and how many
> people were there 50 years ago? This behavior is undeniable unsuitable
> for the public and I reminded him of that after I personally saw it on
> TV. If I were a family member of one of those ladies who died, he
> wouldn't be employed today. There is something seriously wrong with a
> person like that. Uncaring is at the top of the list.
>
> We are no further along in predicting earthquakes than primordial man
> throwing rocks at the Moon and there are no good excuses.
>
> Petra
The other factor, that you have to consider was pointed out to me by the woman
whose ambition is also to remain 19, and she is the very best paralegal in the
world. If you make a prediction wrongly and cause a panic, and somebody gets
hurt, then somebody can *sue* your ass for compensation in America.
I do think any Americans making predictions should consider this fact. Of course
Sir J-P lives in the free-world, so he can.
Firebird
Never trust anybody who is too sophisticated to own a rubber chicken.
http://www.veloceraptor.free-online.co.uk/index.html
http://theoriginalfirebird.blogspot.com/
.
- References:
- Re: Jim Berkland Earthquake Predictions
- From: Petra
- Re: Jim Berkland Earthquake Predictions
- Prev by Date: Re: Jim Berkland Earthquake Predictions
- Next by Date: Re: When Snakes Awake
- Previous by thread: Re: Jim Berkland Earthquake Predictions
- Next by thread: Re: Jim Berkland Earthquake Predictions
- Index(es):
Relevant Pages
|
