Re: Jim Berkland Earthquake Predictions

In article <1137821408.892627.315860@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
hough@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx (Susan) wrote:

>
> John Krempasky wrote:
> > Upon close examination his claims of predicting Loma Prieta are essentially
> > a crock.
> >
> > And he demonstrates no particular skill in predicting quakes of any kind. He
> > has a 1/4th chance of predicting basically any remotely noticeable quake in
> > California with his monthly week-long windows. His sets of monthly
> > predictions are set up to produce a 100% chance of a hit for at least one of
> > them somewhere in the world.
> >
> > I could care less what kind of person he is. His forecasts are of no value
> > and he is misleading the public.
> >
> > It's truly disturbing that the critical thinking skills of the public are so
> > poor this guy has an enormous, clueless, almost cult-like fan base.
>
> A quote on would-be earthquake predictors: "A few such persons are
> mentally unbalanced; but most of them are sane - at least in the
> clinical or legal sense, since they are not dangerous, and are not
> running around with bombs or guns. What ails them is exaggerated ego
> plus imperfect or ineffective education, so that they have not absorbed
> one of the fundamental rules of science - self-criticism. Their wish
> for attention distorts their perception of facts, and sometimes leads
> them on into actual lying."
>
> This was Charles Richter, speaking 30 years ago in the wake of the
> Palmdale Bulge debacle. (Everyone knows the "fools and charlatans"
> quote, but this one, from a private memo, is my personal favorite.)
> It is amazing--truly uncanny, not to mention depressing--how much his
> words from 30+ years ago still rings true to the modern ear.
>
> Susan

May I say that I do like the way you think. I am in total agreement with you.

Firebird

Never trust anybody who is too sophisticated to own a rubber chicken.

http://www.veloceraptor.free-online.co.uk/index.html

http://theoriginalfirebird.blogspot.com/

.

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