Re: Jim Berkland Earthquake Predictions

Susan,

I would like to make a point from what I believe is a learned point of
view; one not biased by being a scientist. And when I say what I'm
about to say, it does not mean at all that I have any lack of respect
for scientists or the work they do.

For six years I have studied the behavioral patterns of scientists and
yes, they do have some. One is quick to understand that it is truly
rare for anyone to write a paper on an original idea. I don't think
I've seen one that does not include borrowing from many others in the
process. So somewhere in there amidst the borrowing is one more
persons point of view. There's plenty more about which I don't care
to elaborate on at this point in time.

If you create a stigma regarding something such is the case of
earthquake prediction it ends up going underground or squelchs the
desire for one to undertake such endeavor for they will be chastised by
their colleagues, labeled and eventually unemployed. I had thoughts
many years ago that this could not be undertaken by anyone who wasn't
retired and pretty much Keilis-Borok is exactly the profile of the
individual I imagined.

Science may seem to be for a changing world, except the part that jumps
up every now and then and kills people who just so happen to live in
buildings near fault lines. My favorite topic in regard to "we don't
predict earthquakes" is when I look at the Parkfield Earthquake
Predicton Experiment. This was supposed to be a place where one
practiced prediction, but that was the least of what happened. It did
not ever live up to what it was designed to do and at one heafty price
as well. It was around $100 Million dollars and where's the results?
An A alert only had a 37% chance of occurring. What's that all about?
If I recall correctly there was only one A alert issued and that was in
1993.

I hate to say this, but the system which governs what we the public
receive may well be responsible for not keeping us alive. That which
does not foster growth and development kills the creativity which could
result in productive end product. This is just not good enough. Not
today or any day.

The only person who seems to have an interest in taking another look is
Tom Jordan of SCEC in his Earthquake Prediction Collaborary and yet I
am not at all certain he wants to see anything truly new. That
remains to be seen.

If cancer researchers were told a hundred thousand times over that they
would never find the cure and their colleagues treated them the way
geoscientists treat each other, millions of people would be dead today
for the lack of a sustained effort. So if survivial in earthquake
country is dependant upon those who should work on earthquake
prediction exclusively, then they should get on with it. We need
results, not excuses and for those who go, they can leave their egos at
the doorstep.

One cold heartless scientist everyone knows and loves went on TV after
the San Simeon quake and said they should have known it was going to
happen because it happens about every 50 years. Two people just died,
no one went there and told them this was going to happen and how many
people were there 50 years ago? This behavior is undeniable unsuitable
for the public and I reminded him of that after I personally saw it on
TV. If I were a family member of one of those ladies who died, he
wouldn't be employed today. There is something seriously wrong with a
person like that. Uncaring is at the top of the list.

We are no further along in predicting earthquakes than primordial man
throwing rocks at the Moon and there are no good excuses.

Petra

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Jim Berkland Earthquake Predictions
    ... > for scientists or the work they do. ... > predict earthquakes" is when I look at the Parkfield Earthquake ... > practiced prediction, but that was the least of what happened. ... Sir J-P lives in the free-world, ...
    (sci.geo.earthquakes)
  • Re: JOB in Wikipedia
    ... and had his hits, including Loma Prieta. ... Dispatch on why they printed that particular prediction and how many ... magnitude of a predicted earthquake. ... Believe me when I say I have tested more scientists ...
    (sci.geo.earthquakes)
  • Re: Jim Berkland Earthquake Predictions
    ... >earthquake prediction it ends up going underground or squelchs the ... >practiced prediction, but that was the least of what happened. ... Scientists have learned a lot at Parkfield: ... >If cancer researchers were told a hundred thousand times over that they ...
    (sci.geo.earthquakes)
  • Re: Observations vs. Theories
    ... Perhaps Newton's Second Law is ... to make a prediction before a hypothesis or theory is formed. ... Scientists throughout history have begun first with a passion to solve ... It's evidence that it has happened. ...
    (talk.origins)
  • Re: Ernst Mayr Calls Evolutionary biology: -a "historical" science-philosophy
    ... DARWIN HIMSELF UNDERSTOOD that questions raised about his narrative had ... It's worth noting that modern evolutionary theory, ... Which was a pretty sound prediction. ... Scientists looked at the known taxa and inferred the intermediate ...
    (talk.origins)