Re: Jim Berkland Earthquake Predictions


John Krempasky wrote:
> Upon close examination his claims of predicting Loma Prieta are essentially
> a crock.
>
> And he demonstrates no particular skill in predicting quakes of any kind. He
> has a 1/4th chance of predicting basically any remotely noticeable quake in
> California with his monthly week-long windows. His sets of monthly
> predictions are set up to produce a 100% chance of a hit for at least one of
> them somewhere in the world.
>
> I could care less what kind of person he is. His forecasts are of no value
> and he is misleading the public.
>
> It's truly disturbing that the critical thinking skills of the public are so
> poor this guy has an enormous, clueless, almost cult-like fan base.

A quote on would-be earthquake predictors: "A few such persons are
mentally unbalanced; but most of them are sane - at least in the
clinical or legal sense, since they are not dangerous, and are not
running around with bombs or guns. What ails them is exaggerated ego
plus imperfect or ineffective education, so that they have not absorbed
one of the fundamental rules of science - self-criticism. Their wish
for attention distorts their perception of facts, and sometimes leads
them on into actual lying."

This was Charles Richter, speaking 30 years ago in the wake of the
Palmdale Bulge debacle. (Everyone knows the "fools and charlatans"
quote, but this one, from a private memo, is my personal favorite.)
It is amazing--truly uncanny, not to mention depressing--how much his
words from 30+ years ago still rings true to the modern ear.

Susan

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Jim Berkland Earthquake Predictions
    ... And he demonstrates no particular skill in predicting quakes of any kind. ... predictions are set up to produce a 100% chance of a hit for at least one of ...
    (sci.geo.earthquakes)
  • Re: Jim Berkland Earthquake Predictions
    ... > And he demonstrates no particular skill in predicting quakes of any kind. ... Humpty Dumpty Bush fell off the Iraq wall. ...
    (sci.geo.earthquakes)
  • Re: Boy Scouts make people nervous
    ... 50-50 chance of mutating into a lethal virus? ... in lieu of adequate information to indicate one more likely to occur ... Don't you remember the "predicting outcomes" ... that were arguing for gathering information in order to help to ...
    (rec.martial-arts)
  • Re: Russ Gs posts...some observations
    ... just for the chance at 1st view. ... :) I was going to make a comment on your 'predicting' a 100+ thread and ... I'm a professional editor, so I'd be in the queue too. ...
    (rec.gambling.poker)
  • Re: Jim Berkland Earthquake Predictions
    ... >> And he demonstrates no particular skill in predicting quakes of any kind. ... >> predictions are set up to produce a 100% chance of a hit for at least one of ... >> It's truly disturbing that the critical thinking skills of the public are so ...
    (sci.geo.earthquakes)