Re: EQDB latest stats

"Petra" <petrasrcf@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in news:1135045878.478252.248360
@g49g2000cwa.googlegroups.com:

> Brian,
>
> I believe it is in your best interest to let Roger run the numbers for
> you. Believe me when I tell you, he's really good and he may do
> things differently than you which can either bolster your numbers, or
> perhaps lower them a bit. But I think you have enough data to let him
> have a try at it. If you wish to continue, he can run those numbers
> later. But help yourself a little here. I think you're making it
> harder than it needs to be.
>
> You'll like Roger, he's very patient. Honestly, if he can put with me,
> you won't have a problem.
>
> Petra

What's the big hurry?

Besides, everything needed to check my claims is already online.

The quake data is from the NEIC global searchable database. I
just do a global search from 10-24-05 thru present using the PDE
catalog. I download all quakes.

All the rules are spelled out on my webpage, the distance criteria,
the magnitude criteria, the time window, the distance, and the
distance formula I am using.

The coordinates and times of all my predictions are on each map.
Admitedly that would be some work to gather as right now he'd
have to download every archived map. It would be no big deal for me
to make a single text file available online listing all predictions
so far. I'll do that with tomorrow's update.

All I do to determine my stats is have the program search the NEIC
data for quakes that meet the prediction criteria for each of the
predictions.

Is it within the 5 day time window?

Is it mag 4.0 or greater?

Is it at or within 1000km distance of the specified
lat/lon coordinates.

I count the number of candidate quakes, that is, the quakes that
are mag 4.0 and greater. That's the candidate count. Then I
count the number of those quakes that fell within one or more
prediction windows. The ratio of the two gives the hit/candidate
ratio. That tells how many of the mag 4.0+ quakes I "predicted".

I also count the total number of predictions. That's easy. It's
11 times however many maps there are that I'm checking. Then I
also check to see how many of those predictions had at least one
quake that met the criteria for that prediction to be counted
as a hit. The ration of hte two gives the hits/prediction
ration. That tells me how many of the "predictions" actually
predicted something.

To summarize using my latest stats as posted, there were 1254*
quakes 4.0 or larger and of those 1045 were within one or more
predictions' criteria. I made 605 predictions so far, and of
those, 295 had at least one hit.

But my point is, *everything* anyone needs to verify my predictions
and my stats are on my webpage already. The only thing I'm not
divulging yet is exactly *how* I make the predictions. But I
promise that will be divulged in my report.

*While writing this I realized I may have made a small error in
my stats program. I may not be counting the candidate quakes
correctly. I will check and make this change to my program if
necessary and report back. Since I've been saving all the data
used for each of my previous statistic postings, I can go bakc
and recalculate ALL of them.

Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
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Relevant Pages

  • Re: Roger Redux
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  • Re: Roger Redux
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  • Re: EQDB latest stats
    ... >> You'll like Roger, he's very patient. ... I download all quakes. ... > All the rules are spelled out on my webpage, the distance criteria, ... > The coordinates and times of all my predictions are on each map. ...
    (sci.geo.earthquakes)
  • Re: Roger Redux
    ... statistical analysis of earthquake predictions. ... quakes that fulfill her forecast. ... If the probability is low, a hit counts for a lot but a miss ... assume that you can search databases where all aftershocks have been ...
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