Re: Earthquake Dart Board update
- From: "Petra" <petrasrcf@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 19 Nov 2005 21:20:52 -0800
Skywise wrote:
> Just an update about my Earthquake Dart Board "predictions".
>
> Enough time has elapsed that I've started confirming the
> "predictions" against the NEIC catalog. I've spent a few hours
> perfecting a program to do the testing for me and to generate
> a well formatted output.
>
> Something very significant I've realized is that my success
> rate is much lower than originally anticipated. This is due to
> using the fuller more complete catalog than just those quakes
> that are deemed 'significant' and posted on the daily webpage.
> Not all quakes make it onto the daily list.
>
> Based on the daily list I was running around 90% plus accuracy.
> With the current confirmation run I'm only at 74%.
>
> There is a link at the top of my webpage which will take you
> to the confirmed list.
>
> http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
>
> Brian
AND???? So how do your results compare with Stan Deyo's for the same
period? 74% is quite good really. I'm impressed. Honestly, I was
thinking you'd get about 60%, but these are early results. I suppose
the long term would be more revealing?
How you feel about continuing this program?
Petra
.
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