Re: Pin the quake on the Earth map.

In article <11lo633lvql8mee@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, into@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
(Skywise) wrote:

> I've just done a more thorough analysis of Stan Deyo's maps.
>
> Based on maps from March 1, 2005 through Oct. 22, 2005 I've
> come to the result that Stan averages 11.85 circles per day.
>
> Part of the increase from my previous 9.4/day number is in
> having gone further back in his archives. It seems earlier
> on there were more circles being plotted. March had 539 for
> the month. The long term average per month is about 350.
>
> The main reason of the increase is that I stopped counting
> overlapping compound shapes as one circle, but instead counted
> each component in the compound shape individually.
>
> At first I considered the compound shapes as an attempt to
> simply refine the shape of his target area. However, in
> scrutinizing the maps further I found that some of his
> compound shapes were long strings of circles aranged in a
> linear fashion, stretching out for thousands of kilometers.
> It's one thing to have highly overlapping circles but it's
> different when they barely overlap.
>
> In one case there was a string of five just overlapping
> circles arranged between the northern coast of Australia and
> New Guinea, from the Banda Sea on the west to Fiji on the
> East. The total length of this string is about 7800 km.
>
> One other point to make is that although the size of the
> circles does vary, they do tend to stay around the same size.
> Typically they seem to be about 1000 - 1300 km across. There
> were a few instances of single circles exceeding 4000km in
> diameter. The smallest weren't much smaller then 500km.
>
> The purpose of the analysis is as a basis for my own daily
> guesses where quakes may occur, as challenged by Petra. I
> needed to characterize the style of Stan's circles so that
> my own long term averages are as similar as possible. At
> this moment I am planning on 11 circles per day of fixed
> size - 1000km. Also, they will be valid for five days just
> as Stan's are, but my maps will be date/time stamped so
> there won't be ambiguity as to when the valid time frame is.
>
> I finally have my own map made. I was having trouble with
> converting the raw data (111+ megs) to a usable form for a
> few days. Although it may superficially be a bit similar to
> Stan's, it is completely new and made by myself after many
> hours of work.
>
> Before I begin I still need to do a little more work. I
> need to rationalize the basis for where and how I will be
> making my own predictions. Actually, I'd rather call them
> what they are - somewhat educated wild ass guesses. I also
> have to finalize some more rules especially those regarding
> what can be claimed as a hit and how it will be determined.
> I will probably have a list of 'close calls' as well. I
> still need to make a space for all this on my website.
>
> Oh, some other rules I've pretty much determined are that
> aftershocks count and quakes as low as M4.0 will be accepted.
> Both of these are evidenced by hits claimed by Stan, so I
> too will accept them. I have to admit I'm uncomfortable with
> claiming aftershocks, but the rules are being somewhat
> dictated by what Stan does. I must play on the same level
> in order to make a valid comparison between our two methods.
>
> In effect, I will be doing the same thing that Stan does
> except that I am being much more refined in my rules and
> making them well known. Also, I will be using an entirely
> different method as to deciding where to place my circles.
> The challenge is to see if I can guess any better than Stan
> does. At most I only expect to do a little better.
>
> I hope to begin in a week or so.
>
> Brian

The rules are pretty simple.

Did you ever play "pin the tail on the donkey" when you were a child?

You have a map of the world in front of you, wear a blindfold and stick a pin in
the map. Then you remove said blindfold, look where the pin is, and announce an
earthquake there.


Alan

http://www.veloceraptor.free-online.co.uk/identity.html

"Phyllis laughed: "There's no use trying," she said; "one can't believe
impossible things."

"I daresay you haven't had much practice," said Tony. "When I was younger, I
always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as
six impossible things before breakfast."

(Adapted from Alice Through the Looking Glass)


.

Relevant Pages

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