Re: Another Deyo 'hit'


Skywise wrote:
> Stand Deyo is claiming a hit on the Taiwan 6.6 that occured today,
> claiming to have 'nailed it' on this Oct 10th map.
>
> On that map he did have a new circle centered right on the epicenter.
>
> But...always a but, isn't there? :)
>
> I looked back at my archived maps up to the Oct. 10th one, a total
> of 111 maps. Of those 111, the epicenter for todays quake was
> covered by a circle 50 times (approx. 45%).
>
> I only counted if the epicenter was definately in the circle. However,
> as Stan pointed out to me, and I mentioned here the other day, the
> epicenter does not have ot be in the circle, just in the area. So
> that means there's a bunch of circles that could have counted that
> I did not include in my tally. I don't know how far out of a circle
> a hit could be counted, though I did ask.
>
> Something else I did is I went through a bunch of maps, 109 to be
> exact, and counted how many circles there were - 1025 total. That's
> an average of 9.4 circles per day. Low was 0, high was 21. On many
> maps Stan has overlapping circles, but they are drawn so that the
> circles are joined. In such cases I counted them as one circle, even
> though there may be several in the set. Otherwise it would raise the
> number of circles and the average.
>
> Point being that out of all those circles, there are only 3 claimed
> hits. Pretty lousy batting average if you ask me - .00293.
>
> Now, I'm not picking on Stans method of forecasting quakes but that
> his forecasts are so bad. Each circle represents an area where there
> _may_ be an increased risk of seismic, volcanic, or storm activity
> within 5 days. A few maps have circles labeled as storm related. The
> operative word is "may". Based on private emails Stan likens it to
> the weatherman saying it "may" rain. But if a weatherman forecasts
> rain 1025 times and only got it right 3 times, how long would he
> keep his job?
>
> I really think Stan throws his circles around too much. Based on his
> results, randomness has a better chance of hitting a quake. If you
> throw enough darts, eventually you'll hit the bulls-eye. The trick
> is to be skillful and hit the bulls-eye more than random chance
> would give you.
>
> I really think he should be able to do better.
>
> Brian

Hi Brian,

I don't know what Deyo's method is, but it would kind of fun if you did
the same thing for six months. Perhaps pick 3 to 5 places a week
anywhere in the world where there might be a 5.5 or greater earthquake
and see what happens. We have to acknowledge of course that you
probably know more about global seismicity than Deyo does. Maybe you
could pick a date to start and play opposite of Deyo's predictions from
that day forward for the six month term. Perhaps Alan Jones could be
your evaluator and monitor to Deyo's predictions.

What do you think? Sound like fun. Does anyone else want to play? Or
do you want to go mono e mono?

Petra

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Pin the quake on the Earth map.
    ... > I've just done a more thorough analysis of Stan Deyo's maps. ... > come to the result that Stan averages 11.85 circles per day. ... > overlapping compound shapes as one circle, ...
    (sci.geo.earthquakes)
  • Another Deyo hit
    ... Stand Deyo is claiming a hit on the Taiwan 6.6 that occured today, ... I looked back at my archived maps up to the Oct. 10th one, ... as Stan pointed out to me, and I mentioned here the other day, the ... and counted how many circles there were - 1025 total. ...
    (sci.geo.earthquakes)
  • Pin the quake on the Earth map.
    ... I've just done a more thorough analysis of Stan Deyo's maps. ... come to the result that Stan averages 11.85 circles per day. ... At first I considered the compound shapes as an attempt to ...
    (sci.geo.earthquakes)
  • Re: "Traveling" Neandethals
    ... they would face exactly the same problems traveling or not. ... Even if they had had maps, it would not have helped them very much ... trans-regional trade of materials with extraneous isotope compositions ... circles unless a reference in the distance is used. ...
    (sci.archaeology)
  • EQDB vs Deyo
    ... I've gone through a selection of Stan's maps and figured ... I have no way to know what Stan ... Stan tends to have compund shapes for some of his circles. ... maps 5x in order to keep overlapping quakes from being hidden. ...
    (sci.geo.earthquakes)