Re: ETI is common in the universe rare on the scale of galaxies

On Apr 1, 10:57 pm, Matt Giwer <jul...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Willie.Moo...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
Fermi's paradox asks, where are they? The answer is ETIs like
ourselves are very rare, we may be the only living example of such
species in the entire cosmos. This due to two factors;

...

To repeat, if 1/10 of 1% of the unexplained UFO sightings are the real thing
the Earth is a popular tourist destination in the universe.

Far fewer than that 1 in 1000 are the real thing - if any are. I mean
consider that we have stealth technologies today on the drawing boards
that provide for total invisibility to the limits of optics

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/sci;312/5781/1777

in both the visible and microwave regions

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/sci;312/5781/1780

So, I doubt even if we were very popular there'd be ANY reports
whatever of the real thing even if they were SLIGHTLY in advance of
us.

Now, as to our popularity.. ever own a horse? Ever have a horse of
yours give birth? Its not an uncommon thing, to happen in the world.
Its nothing you send notices out about. But as the day approaches, it
attracts attention. People stop by the stable, they help out as best
they can. You call in the vet. You know. Its an event. More people
than usual visit the stall.

Same here. Except this is a really really rare event. I mean species
like us - biological entities in charge of the technology - are rare.
We're rare to start out with, but then our lifespan is only like 100
years. So, to see the birth of a post-biological intelligence, which
occurs in like 3 to 5 years - as we pass through the singularity - is
extraordinarily rare! It'll attract attention.

Further, self-replicating machine systems that have spread across even
one galaxy, let alone billions of them, have no cost. It doesn't cost
anything for anything that can happen to happen. So, the only
requirement is the will. Its hard for creatures like us to understand
the nature of reality as these super ETIs see it. The same way a
primitive tribesman might not understand the dining concerns of a
resident in Beverly Hills who spends the afternoon deciding what purse
will go wth what dress and shoes at the Gucci store on Rodeo drive.
If they think about dinner at all they are thinking about a seating at
a five star restaurant or just taking it easy and going three star
today. What the tribesman organizes his whole day around, and the
lives of the tribe he lives with - following the seasons of life to
eat - the resident of Beverly Hills pays no thought to at all - and
may never have skinned an animal and made use of the hide. In short,
they don't understand one another in the least. And they're the same
species on the same planet separated by a few thousand years of
technical development.

When we say things like we'd have to be as popular as the Grand Canyon
to have so many aliens visit us - the answer is no. Because it costs
us something to visit the Grand Canyon. It costs these creatures - if
you can call them that - NOTHING - in the way we think about costs.
So, the only thing they require is the will to do so. And the question
of whether its interesting enough to watch the answer is sure, at
least as interesting as watching a foal be born, and maybe more
interesting than a baby being born. So, there is a reason why here
why now -

But I doubt ANY UFO reports are the 'real thing' - Jung addressed this
fact many years ago. That doesn't mean aliens aren't observing and
perhaps even directing to a small degree our development - in the same
way a nurse directs the birthing procedure. haha..

..

Bottom line, we have no basis for saying ETs are rare.

Yes we do.

1) It took life that was already here nearly 1/3 the age of the
universe for intelligent life to emerge here. This suggests its
pretty uncommon and hard for life to do.

2) We have developed a workable technical procedure - von Neumann
probes - for exploring and making industrial use of the entire galaxy
that if initiated now would take less than 1 million years to swallow
the galaxy. In the pat 3 billion years life was developing brains and
technology on Earth - not one single star system arose to do the same
thing. This suggests that the Earth was lucky to develop brains.

3) The galactic surveys recently made show ball like regions of low
galaxy counts. This is the sort of structure that would be formed if
von Neumann probes expanded beyond their host galaxy and swallowed up
the surrounding galaxies - shielding their light from out view. These
ball like empty regions are 30 million to 300 million light years
across - and appear to be smaller farther from earth (farther back in
time) and seem to have have started forming some 800 million years
ago. This is consistent with Earth's history of life and evolutinary
time table.. The number of voids compared to the number of galaxies
in the survey suggest that one star in 30 trillion to 50 trillion
develop ETI capable of von Neumann probes - which are the only ones
that are of interest in the Fermi Paradox. This makes ETI
extraordinarily rare. And transitional biologically based
intelligences nearly unique in the cosmos.

All we can say is we
have not had any success with RF surveys. We can only speculate as to why there
has been no success.

Correct. The lack of success in finding native life forms nearby
within our own galaxy is consistent with this thesis - life is common
on the scale of the universe, rare on the scale of galaxies.


===What follows is unnecessary and likely distracting from the above point.

When I lived in DC with its millions of tourists a year I have no idea how many
of them were disguised ETs.

WE have technologies - mems based - that can penetrate a region
without anyone knowing; Check out this picture

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/31/Nanogearandbug.jpg

That's a gear train MEMs based - and a dust mite - the kind that live
in the pores of your eyebrows!

Now imagine a population of dust mite sized robots connected via
wireless lan penetrating a region

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotic

Now imagine sensor fusion software tapping into this wireless lan and
extracting real time virtual reality models based on it

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensor_fusion
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_reality

Consider too that a self replicating machine system - MEMs based - the
size of a dust mite only requires ONE device on board the robot probe
to seed the whole planet!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine

Check it out. A single dust mite sized robot makes a copy of itself,
and then goes back into storage. The daughter robo-mite is released
into the environment. Assuming replication times on the order of 1
second - In less than 100 seconds, any number of robo mites needed
would be created.

In short, in TWO MINUTES with only SLIGHT ADVANCES ON :HUMAN
TECHNOLOGIES - we could monitor the entire Earth to a very fine
degree.

This is MEMs based stuff - nanotech, down at the level of atoms -
would be smaller more capable and harder to detect.

I wouldt say it unlikely that we run into ETIs in DC. There's no
need. If an ETI wanted to affect a political leader to make a certain
decision they wouldn't have to do something as crass as talk to the
the leader. They'd impregnate that leader's body with viral sized
networks of robotic bugs and communicate directly with his brain
cells. They'd suggest a course of action and he or she would think it
a weird idea but one that wouldn't go away and as objections came up
around it, answers would form in his mind to address him, until the
idea was acted upon.

And you definitely would not run into biologically based ETIs EVER -
they're too rare and they got their own shit to worry about in a
galaxy far far away. The post biological ETIs have outstripped them
anyway.

No, if there are ETIs here watching us and helping us, they are post-
biological and they are doing their schtick in a way that's totally
undetectable by us.

I rarely did more than a very rare wave in the right
direction with the very few I ever got close to. So most didn't even need good
camouflage/costumes to fool me. [Insert joke about being certain a few
foreigners looked like they were.]

Well, this sounds like you have a mental disorder closely related to
certain schizophrenia types.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syndrome_of_subjective_doubles

Basically, some people think that significant others in their life are
replaced with dopplegangers. You see other people and sense somehow
they are aliens. haha..

Have you had damage in the right cerebral cortex? Had drug use that
affects that region? This may explain your feelings that others in DC
are aliens.

Why are you looking for RF transmissions? The light is better over here.

You have misread my statements. I said the we have technologies that
can send radio signals across the universe (radio telescopes)

Ever hear of the water hole? The clear region between H and OH
spectra where even radio telescopes like we can build can signal
across the galaxy? A slight investment in building larger more
powerful such devices would allow us to signal across the cosmos.

We also have lasers. Which can do the same thing with light

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SETI

And we have von Neumann probe idea - which allow us with a small
investment - send spacecraft across the cosmos

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Von_Neumann_Probe



I am reminded of the 15th c. Chinese explorers who built a navy, took a quick
look around and dismantled it. So we not only have to assume ETs are like humans
we also have to assume they are like 15th and 16th c. European explorers before
we can even expect exploration and an interest in dealing with new species but
then if and only if there is the profit motive that drove the Europeans.

The Chinese saw no profit. They looked around and found nothing of
value that was worth the effort. The Europeans saw things
differently.

But you miss the point - eventually the entire Earth was explored with
the best available technology, and the culture that did it first,
dominated history since.

Same here. There will be many false starts and detours. Those don't
concern us. Only those ETIs that develop a technological singularity
- that spawn a post biological intelligence - which creates a wave of
self-repliating von Neumann probes - are the ones that will impact the
Fermi Paradox. And the paradox is answered. Those that have the
capacity to visit us are rare on the scale of galaxies, and about 100
million to 1 billion years in advance of us - and we are a rare
transitional species the last phase before the post-biological
intelligences emerge - so its very likely the zoo hypothesis is
correct.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

The
idea of a human spirit of exploration is a myth, a strong and popular one but a
myth nevertheless.

So? All species have a range. All species tend to fill their range.
Humanity is unique in that it uses technical means to expand their
range beyond their native range. So,technology has allowed humans to
exist in ALL ranges. So, using technnology humanity has expanded to
the ends of the Earth. As a result humans are the most successful
animals of their size. This is what it means to be human.

The technological singularity will spawn a post-biological
intelilgence that will be superior to human intelligence in nearly
every measure. Once this intelligence self-reproduces, it can be said
to be a post-biological species. But this species will be superior to
humans in another way because they are not biological. they can
design THEMSELVES as well as their environment. So, here is how the
three orders of intelligent life come down;

1) Non-technical - range determined by nature
2) Technical - range fixed by ability to modify environment
3) Post-biological - range fixed by ability to modify self

In the third order of life the range is COSMIC. There are no limits.
So, such species will outpace and expand way beyond their biological
progenitors.

Belief in that myth is the primary reason we expect ET to
explore

No, Every species fills its range. I said I don't expect biologically
based ETIs to be anywhere near Earth. Post biological ETIs - based on
self-replicating machines modeled after successful organisms in the
environment, will fill their range and do their jobs - and that range
happens to be EVERYWHERE.

yet the Chinese example and the example of all prior civilizations in
the world shows no signs of any spirit of exploration.

You don't get the idea yet. You are looking at a detail and thinking
it is telling you something of a general nature. Fact is, the Chinese
faltered, humanity did not. Humanity filled the range they were
capable of filling like all other species. Details determine the
nature of things. The world is European culture based because of that
detail. But in the end, the world was filled with humans. As the
technological singularity passes, machine intelligence will arise to
surpase human intelligence, and humans will use this infrastructure to
have and to do whatever they like. Machine intelligences too will be
driven by the demands of humans, but they too will have their own
desires and needs - and in the end, because of their superior
capabilities - the machines will dominate.and they will fill their
range, which is everywhere.

It is difficult to imagine what profit there might be trade of any kind or any
resources worth exploiting even if found on Mars much less dozens and more light
years away. I do not see a profit in it.

So, you have much in common with the Chinese, so your culture will not
contribute to the development of interplanetary culture.
However,those who DO find utility - profit - in the development of
interplanetary space will do so. And THEY will contribute to that
culture. This is likely to occur after the technological
singularity,so its likely to be human post-biological intelligence.
Interested humans will tag along obviously, but the machines will
spread farther and faster than the humans.

Consider anything you can imagine you
can find in asteroids with a much cheaper gravity well than any planet that is,
if you can imagine something.

That's your imagination - and that's fine. Super human machines will
have super human imaginations and deal with other super human machines
to achieve goals they have come up with or have been asked to achieve.

If there is a species or two with a spirit of exploration and learning for its
own sake

Curiousity is a feature of those who use brains successfully. You are
making distinctions on secondary observables. The primary is that
humans use technology to expand their range. This is embedded in our
culture. Joseph Campbell talks about the monomyth. All myths have a
hero who is called to adventure and enters a transcendant realm.
There the hero finds a great secret and returns to mundane reality to
share that secret.

Prometheus climbs Mount Olympus, consorts with the gods, steals fire,
and shares it with his fellows.

Buddah as a great prince, fights a great battle, and achieves
enlightenment and sits under a Boddi tree teaching his fellows

Christ suffers dies and is buried on the third day he rises again
bringing salvation to humanity.

This mythic cycle resonates with the human experience because it is
the internalization of the process of expansion humans have engaged in
since Olduvai Gorge. The transcendant realm is the frontier beyond
the known. The great divine secret the new resources available
without competition with your fellows. The joining of your fellows
and the sharing high lighting the lack of compeition because of the
knowledge of the new realm.

Any successful species will engage in this activity.

Any successful post-biological species will engage in this activity.

Any species that does not engage in this activity will not fill its
range and will therefore not be successful as a species. And will not
be detectable by us or contribute to the Fermi Paradox.

how many other civilizations have to be discovered before "if you've
seen one you've seen them all" sets in for all but a few academics?

Successful species fill their range. Unsuccessful species do not.
So, we are compelled to fill a range available to us by forces having
nothing to little to do with the desire to explore. Although the
desire to explore can be tied into this if one has faith that any
untapped range is a range waiting to be developed. This is not true
for us generally - off world - it IS true for post-biological self
replicating machine intelligences. So, to the extent such machine
populations form a successful species, they will expand across the
cosmos - and be part of the Fermi paradox. This is the only species
we are talking about when we ask where are they? We know where all
the others are - they're on their home world or in their home star or
close to it.

And how many
more before even academics find more interesting things to study?

How many babies have to be born before we humans tire of having babies
and engaging in the activities associated with making babies?

To the extent an intelligence sees the cosmos as something very
valuable that only takes a little effort to bring to reality - they
will do those things necessary to fill the cosmos. To the extent an
intelligent sees the cosmos as a barren wilderness totally devoid of
any practical value, rife with danger, and an endless cost - they will
do nothing since in their minds they have reached the limits of their
range - and those species will turn inward and begin the long slow
decline perfecting their mental and technical skills in increasingly
cunning forms of competition over the limited resources available to
them.

Digging up bibleland was hot decades ago before it became clear there was no
bible to find.

You are not looking at this properly.

Now it is a few people who have interests in what there really is
to find who pretend to bible digs to get money from rich Christian and Jewish
sponsors. (Think, The Producers, Bialystok and Blum.) And there are not many of
them as there is almost no hope of finding anything of sufficient importance to
make a professional reputation. In a few more decades even that fiction will
disappear. (soc.history.ancient is the place to disagree with me on this point.)

This has little to nothing to do with how humans and post-biological
intelligences will view the cosmos as a range to be filled.

Studying alien civilizations will be hot for a while but the bloom will wear
off. Who discovered the Aztecs? The Incas? Easy? How about the Sioux? The
Apache? The most famous naturalist of all time was Darwin. Name three others.

We will not explore and settle and make of the cosmos a habitable
range because we're idly curous about intelligence. We will expand
our range because that's what successful species are driven to do. If
we circumscribe our range to Earth to the solar system to the Perseus
Arm, we are placing limits on ourselves and will eventually become
less than human. We will turn inward, forget our the power of our
myths, and become increasingly cunning at stealing and conniving and
fighting one another for what limited resources are left.

If we remain true to our ancient heritage of expanding our habitable
range - and encode that capacity into our post-biological offspring -
then we will set up a species that will seek to fill the cosmos with
its kind - and we will follow where we can of course - and competition
for resources will disappeaer. The mythic promise of the machine will
have been fulfilled.

So even the advance of our own sciences shows new fields are popular for a
while and then decline and eventually fade to obscurity. Space is different? If
you were alive you likely saw the first moon landing. When did you last watch a
shuttle launch? Even on SETI, how many can and cannot name the last search
upgrade for the data we are analyzing? How long was it before you stopped
reading the latest info posting on the S@H website?

And all of that even though we cannot say for certain we are not being visited
frequently.

We are about 30 years away from our own technological singularity. It
has been clear for the past 70 or 80 years that were headed that way.
Not to us obviously,but to those in the know. So, the cosmic web may
have manifested some ETIs nearby and increased intelligence operations
to observe and perhaps participate in this new birth. Such
observations and inflence is very likely to be nearly invisible to us,
even if we knew what to look for.

Here is an example of how it might go. Who knows for sure? But I've
imagined a scenario tht would be nearly impossible for even advanced
systems that were looking really hard - to find what's up.

An intelligent interstellar substrate that followed minimal
interference protocols in regions unimportant to the spawning ETI
would be easily put in place and have been observing the Milky way at
a limited level for aeons.. Given speed of light limits - if they
exist - or complexity limits - if they don't - intelligent machine
systems would be spread throughout the cosmos in a distributed
decision making network that reliably carried out the goals of the
makers.

When the signs of an approaching technological singularity arises on a
planet, more intelligence and decision making capacity is called for.
So, a station out in the Oort cloud might be manifested. A 1 kg probe
is built with an invisibilty sheild and is shot toward Earth along a
radius from the Earth's center to a convenient bright star near the
path to the Oort cloud base. So, even if you could figure out how to
see the slight optical distortions of the invisibilility sheild, the
bright star light would hide the tiny craft from even dedicted
viewers. When the craft hit the Earth's atmosphere it would break up,
looking to the casual observer like a tiny asteroid, but as it slowed,
mite sized robot populations of a wide variety would scatter in the
wind. When they touched down they would establish nests - and receive
additional instructions and manifest additional stealthy techniques to
spread data gathering and processing capabilities across the surface
of the Earth. They would then use sensor fusion and virtual reality
techniques to obtain whatever detail they wanted, run scenarios
against different possibilities, and where needed apply tiny
corrective inputs suggested by the computer models likely by affecting
the brains of humans directly through an intelligent viral infection.

All humans have cold viruses and herpes viruses. It is quite likely
that we have many unknown benign virus infections that have no
sypmptoms. So its easy to imagine that an engineered viral populatoin
could be made to create a latent infection among all members of a
particular species and then have all those elements coordinate to
create structures in each of those bodies capable of sending and
receiving information to a network of other nanotech devices external
to that species. .

--
Will the Iraq surge be remembered along with WWI attempts to break through
the western front?

It may be that every detail of every life for the past 70 years has
been recorded in minute detail and can be summoned up in a virtual
reality model - and that every human heart and thought has been
recorded since it might be of interest to the post-biological
intelligence we spawn some day.

Why would an ETI do this? Because our post-biological intelligence
may have unique capacities and insights that are useful to the ETI at
some point in the cosmic future,and the ETI having this data would
have a bargaining chip - that is, something to trade for the efforts
of our intelligence.


-- The Iron Webmaster, 3743
nizkorhttp://www.giwersworld.org/nizkook/nizkook.phtml
flying saucershttp://www.giwersworld.org/flyingsa.htmla2

Alright


.

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