Re: Solar heat for the shop. ^5's Morris!

BDBConstruction wrote:

On Dec 6, 6:21 pm, Mark & Juanita <nos...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
snip>

The 10 year average I used should be fairly applicable since it began at
a period when gas prices were below $1 and have carried through this
year's $4+ prices.  The fly in the ointment in the future will be if this
cap and trade taxation scheme ever gets implemented and destroys the cost
of electric power.

--
If you're going to be dumb, you better be tough

Even the most conservative speculations are not looking to even the
recent past as an accurate gauge of where our energy prices could be
headed in the next 20 years. We are by no means on a level grade
though it is of course all speculation.

That is why using historical data is of value. Will it be 100% accurate?
Of course not, but it provides a reasonable point of departure for planning
purposes. If I take your 6% per year estimate and apply it to my average of
$192 per month (all electric home in Arizona) for 2000 and forward-price
that to 2008, it shows my average monthly energy cost would be $306 per
month. That is not the case, even after this year's extra-ordinary cost
increases and the fact that my December bill is not yet factored into the
mix. The reality is that this year's average is on the order of $220,
reflecting an average annual cost increase of only about 2.5%. Could
energy price increases accelerate in the future? Of course, but if one is
planning a large expense, one should use a more solid foundation than
speculation. For the 6% per year energy increase to become true, energy
rates would need to increase at more than twice the rate they have
increased in the past.

As far as not being on a level grade, if you had been asked this summer if
gas prices would ever reach $1.60 per gallon again, would you have answered
in the affirmative? Energy as a commodity rises and falls with demand and
economic conditions.

The concern here is going to be non-market factors such as government
interference attempting to do social engineering by artificially inflating
conventional energy costs.

The auto exec's surley based
their business on an unmitigated analysis focused squarely on the past
with no eye to the future and look where it has gotten their
businesses.

There were numerous things that have contributed to the auto companies'
problems, but not all of them are germain to this subject.

I have no idea if you are one that feels there is a never
ending supply of oil and NG and we are all being snowed with regards
to the energy and environmental issues we face in the future.

The fact is there are significant energy reserves that have been walled
off to development and some of that are not yet cost effective to develop.
The fact is that alternate energy approaches need to be able to compete
with those sources of energy. If they can do so, then that is great,
people will jump on board in a heartbeat; if those alternate sources can
only be competitive by government fiat and subsidy, then that's not so rosy
a picture.

As far as environmental issues, if you are one who has bought into the
man-made global warming (oops, that didn't work since it's getting cooler),
um, man-made global climate change; then I fear further discussion is
pointless.

If that
is the case than the conversation is pointless as we can all rest our
bones and just boost the thermostat.


I always love it when someone points out issues in alternate energy
computations or projected cost savings and is answered with one of
those, "fine, go home and turn up the thermostat then" kind of responses.

With regards to system sizing/pricing I merely referenced a 1.5-2kw
system which of course is not going to cut it for a large or all
electric or wasteful/non-conserving home. Nor one in poor location for
PV. This is a system that would cost 9-11k or less without storage.
With federal and state rebates could be as low as I mentioned. This is
a system respective of the 75.00 a month electric bill in most
locations. However, if ones bill is more than 75, its more, system is
bigger, savings are bigger.

System is bigger, initial cost is bigger.



The common averages state that one can
expect a 8-12 percent return on investment over 20 years depending on
system cost and location (rebates). Most portfolios are lucky to hit
that in decent times and arent further bolstered by tens of thousands
of tons of reduced carbon footprint. At some point we have to stop
merely looking at our wallet. Though it will always be the
overwhelming factor at some point we are going to have to factor other
things in that we may not be instantly compensated for or that we
merely break even financially over the 20 years.


OK, you do buy into the anthropogenic global climate change hoax.


Given this is for CA but a simple calculator found in many forms on
the net - http://www.suncalsolar.com/costs/costs.htm

This link is from a company we have used and these examples are more
geared toward off grid homes. They all include costly batteries
however also use grid tie-able inverters.
http://www.backwoodssolar.com/reference/examples.htm . Examples 2-4 would
be similar (less the batteries, trading them for panels) to what I was
referring to. Even the largest system on the list isnt 60k though it
doesnt include any installation.

With regards to system maintenance yes, of course there will be
maintenance as well as risk. It isnt any different than any other
investment you make. Just like hail can trash your car or home, a
lightning strike, power surge, falling tree, could damage your system.
Just like your vehicle oil changes, tires, and home require
maintenance so will it though without batteries it would require
virtually none. If there is storage involved replacing battery banks
every 5-7 years will be factored in. However most grid tied homes opt
to forgo storage and trade those $$ for more panels as the grid is a
far more effective storage module than batteries. This would
additionally boost output. This is something that always gives me a
chuckle. When someone wants a cedar sided house, tiled roof, or an
Escolade they dont "run the numbers". They just want it. The cost of
owning it is offset by emotion. Yet when something like this is
actually practical and in many cases even profitable it is held to
unrealistic standards of scrutiny by some.

Given the numbers I'm seeing, it's still not practical unless one makes
some outrageous extrapolations for future energy prices. If energy prices
do start to skyrocket at the rate you are speculating, then it will be
worthwhile to look into, solar energy may at that time actually be cost
competitive, and most likely will be somewhat more mature.


As far as pure emotion, how much closer to that can you come than when
someone pays for a system that lets them smugly claim they have a $0
electric bill but have paid such a large amount for the system to produce
it that they will never break even?


The simple fact of the matter, is most all calculators out there call
out 8-12 percent return on investment with many factors included.
Given some of this is based on state and fed rebates and it varies
from state to state. Savings is savings. From my perspective if you
can come within +/- 2 points of the average interest rate of the same
period for investing your money its a no brainer simply due to doing
more with less and supporting new and innovative industries.

Sadly, most of the blanket nay sayers with regards to AE in general
come from a very biased viewpoint to begin with and will only be
swayed if they get paid. Break even wont even move them. Its the Me
Millennium, Welcome to the future.

You'd do a lot better making your case without the condescension and
derision.



Mark

--
If you're going to be dumb, you better be tough
.

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