Re: Amtrak Horror


"Keith W" <keithspam@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:1137079882_163@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
> "Bill in Schenectady" <billnech@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
> news:zDjxf.2088$%W3.1368@xxxxxxxxxxx
>>
>
>>>
>>> As for suburbs they arose LONG before the car became the
>>> favoured form of transport. The London suburbs grew uo
>>> along the railway lines as did those for NYC
>>>
>>> Keith
>>
>> The early suburbs were either playground for the rich, or basically towns
>> outside the cities linked by good transportation.
>
> The early suburbs were the preferred living place for the middle
> class. The railroad made such suburbs possible.
>
>
>
>> Today's U.S. suburbs are immense sprawling entities dependent on the
>> automobile. Much of that will not be sustainable with $6 to $10 a gallon
>> gas.
>>
>
> Similar suburbs do just fine in Britain where Gas is already $6 per gallon

Where they have much better public transportation than the U.S. does.

>
>> I do hope that there will be demand for better mass transit and more park
>> and rides. I think that's necessary. I've had a debate with my own
>> employer about liberalizing their car pooling policies with respect to
>> access to the much sought after parking garage (as opposed to the remote
>> parking lot) in order to help foster more car pooling; and to liberalize
>> their tele-commuting policies. In my job, I can't telecommute every day,
>> but once or twice a week would certainly work out.
>>
>> I think the inner suburbs will do fine. It's those country estates, 50
>> or miles out, that will have their problems...particularly the places
>> that lack the density to support mass transit and park and ride options.
>>
>
> A high percentage of the people who work in London live in
> communities 50 miles or away. My neighbor commutes
> daily to London which is 55 miles away. He does what
> tens of thousands of others do and drives a few miles
> to the local rail station and then catches a high speed
> electric train into central London. These trains take 55 minutes
> for the hourney and run every 20 minutes or so.

We'll need to build such systems here. However, I fear that the planning
and construction time will be insufficient to avoid significant financial
hardships for many who now consider themselves to be middle class.


>
>> I do think our car market will change drastically in the short term and,
>> as usual, Detroit will be the last to hear about it.
>>
>
> On the contrary they have been aware of it for years, why do you
> think they have been investing in hybrid cars and other more
> efficient designs ?

Why are Honda and Toyota the only companies that are really pushing the
envelope for fuel economy while Detroit pushes hybrid technology primarily
as a way to push up horse power. Detroit still doesn't get it and they will
be left in the dust by the Japanese just as they were in the 70's and 80's.


> Those same multinational car companies sell cars in Europe that
> have MUCH higher fuel effciencies than the matching US model.
> Until recently Ford/Nissan/GM couldnt persuade the US customer
> to pay the extra $1000 or so for the high efficiency engines but
> in Europe where gas at $ per gallon has been the norm for years
> they make up the majority of the market.
>
> Consider a typical SUV - the Nissan X-Trail in the USA typical
> sports a 2.5 litre petrol engine giving 29 mpg, Maximum Speed 118 mph -
> (Man)
>
> 0 - 60 mph 9.9 seconds - (Man)
>
> The UK version usually ships with an advanced 2.2 litre
> turbo diesel that gives 39 mpg with top speed of 113 mph
> and 0-60 time of 11.1 seconds
>
> Figures from What Car (UK)
>
> So for the extra $1500 or so up front the diesel gives you
> 25% better fuel economy for minimal change in performance.
>
>> I also think that people will place a higher value on living closer to
>> their work destinations and that the market for the far off McMansions
>> will drop.
>>
>> One thing I know: the 33% annual oil price hikes of the last two years
>> will only continue.
>
> The problem is that for more than 20 years through the 80's and
> 90's oil was so cheap that oil exploration and development
> slowed to almost nothing. The high price of oil since 2002/3
> means that money is being ploughed into new reserves again
> but these will not come on line for at least a couple of
> years again
>
> There are large non conventional reserves such as the Athabascan
> tar sands that are only viable with oil at more than $40 per
> barrel but expanding production of these is even slower as
> it involves complex production equipment in Norther Canada
> and that involves major logistical and infrastructure investment.
>
> You are correct however in assuming that supply and demand
> are so closely matched that any hiccup on the supply side
> would have major affects on the market price.
>
> The EU countries are aiming at a 10-15% reduction in use
> by greater efficiency and this would give us a little breathing space
> at least.

That amount of reduction is the minimum needed...perhaps more as China and
India keep increasing their demand.

ONe problem with the new supplies though...they are indeed more expensive as
you've noted. Much of it is also more polluting.


>> And this is compounded by the fact that natural gas is also in short
>> supply.
>
> The big problem you have in the USA is convincing the State and
> Federal governments to the things only they can managed
> such as building passenger railways for commuters and
> putting in place the tax measures to make sustainable power
> generation (including nuclear) more viable.

You hit a very big nail on the head here. There is a huge conservative base
in the U.S. that doesn't seem to mind hundreds of billions for new highways
(that rapidly clog with traffic) but can't seem to support a much smaller
investment for rail.


> Until the country starts getting California style rolling blackouts
> that probably wont happen and unfortunately it takes
> 10 years or so to build a nuclear power plant. The end
> result is more likely to be relaxing environmental controls
> and the burning of more low quality coal with all the
> smoke, pollution and CO2 emissions that involves.
>

I fear that you're correct here.

My wife recently spoke with someone from New York State's Energy Research
and Development Authority about natural gas supplies. Here in the
Northeast, we're heavily dependent on natural gas, much of it imported from
Canada. We use it to heat our homes, cook our food, warm our water, and
increasingly to power our electricity. In fact, there has been a big push
to natural gas power plants in the northeast in recent years to cut down on
air pollution from coal plants. Trouble is, gas supplies are also limited.
And unlike oil, when a gas well gives out, it doesn't slowly slow down...it
just stops. The state guy was asked about the security of gas supplies. He
said that there are industrial contracts for gas that allow the supplies to
be temporarily cut during supply problems. In exchange they get cheaper
rates. There has never been a cut off until the last few years. Electrical
generating plants are next on the list should there be a supply problem.
Residential use would be cut off last, in part due to safety. They don't
want water pipes freezing in the winter. Also many home furnaces and gas
stoves and ovens have pilot lights which residents often don't know how to
relight. In the event of a sudden return of gas pressure, there would be
gas turned on to the pilot lights, but no lights to burn off the gas,
increasing possible explosion dangers.

Bottom line: natural gas supplies to the U.S. are much less secure than most
of us think. And that doesn't get nearly the press that oil does.

You do raise good points about future production and alternatives. However,
I think Americans mostly have their heads in the sand, believing that
everything will be just fine.


.

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