Re: OT: Astronomy - we are small

robinson.neil@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
On 19 Apr, 02:49, TT <g...@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
robinson.n...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
On 19 Apr, 01:52, TT <g...@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
robinson.n...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
On 19 Apr, 01:10, TT <g...@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
TT wrote:
robinson.n...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
On 19 Apr, 00:53, TT <g...@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
robinson.n...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
On 19 Apr, 00:20, TT <g...@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
robinson.n...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
On 18 Apr, 23:08, TT <g...@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
I think your argument is like saying that if we flip a coin million
times we can't be sure that all wouldn't be "heads"...which is of
course
correct in theory but not in practise.
No, it is not the same because we know the probability of a coin
giving a head.
And we also know there are many many STARS and estimate the amount
as 70
sextillion (7 x 10^22) in the visible universe.
Yes we don't know P(life emerges on a
planet that can support life) ...But as I said, imo it's irrelevant
because of the huge numbers. We do know that it's is not zero since
there is life on Earth.
It is not irrelevant. If the probability is sufficiently low, even if
it is not zero, then it is perfectly feasible for us to be alone. This
is true for any estimate for the number of planets in the universe,
not matter how enormous....unless you consider an infinite universe
with infinite planets.
Yes I understand mathematical side of it. However I see no _reason_ to
assume that probability for life in correct conditions would be that
rare. It's all same matter.
I see no reason to assume it is that rare either,
Good
that has never been
my position. The difference between us is that I additionaly see no
reason to assume it isn't that rare. It is a complete unknown, as far
as I am concerned.
P.S. I don't think it's completely unknown...it's all same matter in the
universe as far as we know.
You keep raising this despite the fact that I have pointed out it is
not the important issue. The fundamental elements of life on our
planet - carbon, oxygen, hydrogen, nitrogen - are perfectly abundant
in the universe. It is the necessary configurations of them to start
life that we are interested in. How likely are they to occur. That is
the complete unknown.
And my point is that all configurations of these elements are likely to
appear because of large numbers.
You are ignoring combinatorial explosions. A string of DNA just 133
base pairs long has more configurations than there are currently
estimated to be atoms in the entire universe. A quantity of DNA
equivalent to what is present in just one of your cells can have over
a 10^18000000000 times more than that.
And if you put one grain of rice on first square of chessboard, and two...

David Darling:
What matters is not whether there's anything unusual about the Earth;
there's going to be something idiosyncratic about every planet in space.
What matters is whether any of Earth's circumstances are not only
unusual but also essential for complex life. So far we've seen nothing
to suggest there is.

The Earth needn't be unique, in terms of it's conditions, to be the
only planet supporting life.

In that case there would be even more ET life.

The false assumption being made is that
the right conditions for life necessitate, or even make likely, the
emergence of life. We simply do not yet understand the process of
abiogenesis enough to make this call.

You say that if conditions are met, there still might not be life...That doesn't make sense.

"Abiogenesis"...Who says life has to form exactly same way as it did on earth? And who says it even has to be carbon based?


--
"Now I have so many dreams to chase - the French Open, an Olympic
singles gold medal in London in 2012, the Davis Cup for Switzerland"
.

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