Re: j, Expected Gain is the concept you don't understand...

Martin Smith wrote:
expected gain
The expected gain (or expected return) is the weighted-average most likely outcome in gambling, probability theory, economics or finance.

If you have a bag of 150 balls, 17 of which are white and the rest black, if you draw 80 balls out of the bag, what is the expect number of white balls in that sample?

The answer is a number in the range 0..17. I guarantee it is not 0 or 17. I figured 9, but maybe I was wrong. 

Not sure what this has to do with swimming but...

The expected number of white balls is 80 * 17/150 which is a little more than 9.
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