Re: (R/T) Conmebol WCQ, Round 12
- From: Clément <lcmello.listas@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 3 Apr 2009 09:07:02 -0700 (PDT)
On Apr 3, 2:29 am, Lleo wrote:
On 2 abr, 08:46, Clément wrote:
Ecuador now in a tough spot, with only 2/6 home matches, and those are
against Argentina and Uruguay. They'll need help to get to their 3rd
WC finals in a row. Especially considering how solid Chile and Uruguay
look this time.
Yes, but two of the away games are in the altitude (Colombia and
Bolivia), which doesn't make a difference for them.
I expect the opponents themselves to make a difference... ;)
Ecuador is playing well, with a lot of energy, but they must learn to
bury their chances, because their opponents are taking a lot of
advantage on their inability to finish games.
Also, remember when we commented back them how Ecuador's messy start
to the WCQ would likely prove to be their undoing. Well, there we go.
They could be around 20 points right now, and maybe should.
(...)
We have a tricky road, though. Our next 4 matches are against the 4
other top contenders in South America: Uruguay (A), Paraguay (H),
Argentina (A), and Chile (H). Then we finish against Bolivia (in an
always unpredictable match in La Paz) and a likely eliminated
Venezuela at home.
Indeed. Possibly the trickiest of the current top-5 contenders. Let's
have a look at the others.
(snip parts of great analysis)
Chile gets Bolivia, Venezuela and Ecuador at home, this last one at
the final round. If they're out by them and Chile isn't, how better
can things get for them? They'll travel to Paraguay, Brasil and
Colombia, and all due respect, can't see them getting more than 3 or 4
points away, if they get that much. A good home form should be enough
- something that isn't granted with the Chilean team, though.
Wow. Now I realize that Chile's road is considerably simpler than the
other teams'. They face three beatable opponents at home. If they win
all these matches, they'll reach 29 points, which should be enough to
qualify as a top 4 (as you mentioned).
This race could be even more interesting than I thought.
Paraguay not only is in the pole-position, they are the only team who
still have four away games ahead of them, Chile, Bolivia, Argentina
and Colombia. They're away to Brasil and Venezuela. They may well
finish with 35 points, better than what Brasil and Argentina did in
2004/5, though they'll probably take it easier after ensuring
qualification.
They play Venezuela (A) and Colombia (H) last. These two matches are
unlikely to have a big influence on the outcome, i.e., if Paraguay is
qualified by September, it will probably be irrelevant whether they
take it easy in the end.
Notice that, even if they fail to clinch the spot in advance, they'll
still have two matches against opponents who could be eliminated by
then. Things definitely look good to Paraguay.
In short, of the five contenders, Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay have
the tougher roads, while Paraguay and Chile have [theoretically]
easier schedules? Hehe, cool. =)
(...)
8 Venezuela 13 12 4 1 7 14 22 8-
They are still getting closer. I thought they could pull and upset
this time, but it's probably not going to happen.
Yeah, that's too bad. They've come a long way, but they still need to
raise their game a level or two in order to be a real contender.
Hopefully, they'll be up there soon enough.
Definitely. The deeper the field, the better. Conmebol has the
potential to be very competitive, with no automatic punching bag
teams, and at least 8 sides with legitimate chances everytime. Why
not?
Bolivia still have 3 home matches, which could lift them to 21 points
if all goes well. They would still need an estimated minimum of 4
points in 3 away matches to fight for 5th place. Which they wouldn't
get, even with the confidence boost from their spanking of Argentina.
Counting WCQ's since 1996, it's now 32 away games, 4 draws and 28
losses. One could reasonably be more shocked by seeing them winning
one on the road than by the recent spanking aforementioned :-)
And to think we conceded one of those 4 draws...
(...)
Agreed, but that's assuming we win our home matches. Which with did
with relative ease back in 2001 and 2005, but looks trickier this
time. Chile are not to be taken lightly, but they play an open brand
of football that suits Dunga's team well. On the other hand, I predict
we are up to some suffering against Paraguay.
Seven points out of the next 4 matches is probably our magic number.
That would be ideal. Myself, I'm expecting five, a win and a draw at
home, a draw and a loss away. See, I'm not at all optimist for the
remaining away schedule, although I think we won't lose them three,
two points is the most I can see us getting from them. Assuming we'll
do our homework against Venezuela (all due respect, of course),
Paraguay and Chile will indeed be the key games for us.
Your assessment is realistic. But I really hope we approach the away
games with getting more than just 2 or 3 points in mind. The last two
times, there was little doubt we would beat both Paraguay and Chile at
home. And we did.
While there's no reason to believe we cannot do it again, we'd better
not rest all hopes on those matches or we could find ourselves in a
hole.
Abraço,
Luiz Mello
.
- References:
- (R/T) Conmebol WCQ, Round 12
- From: Lleo
- Re: (R/T) Conmebol WCQ, Round 12
- From: Clément
- Re: (R/T) Conmebol WCQ, Round 12
- From: Lleo
- (R/T) Conmebol WCQ, Round 12
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