Re: OG Medal Points

"anders t" <anthu_001@No?SPaM?_hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:1ob502tlok7gst901hiktrdlp529g843st@xxxxxxxxxx

Normalized by population (MP/M)

Why just normalize by population? I guess that you want some measure of how
each country performed relative to its "potential". But the potential to
succeed in the Winter Olympics is also a function of a country's wealth (as
measured by its GDP per capita), and by its distance from the equator (as
measured by the latitude of each country's capital city).

So one can write a statistical model for the "medal index" won by each
country (the 4-2-1 method you used), as a function of these three variables,
and that also takes into account all the countries that won no medals at the
OG (I use a tobit model to account for the fact that the distribution of the
medal index is censored at 0, but one could do even more sophisticated
stuff). I estimate the model using a sample of 166 countries (the three
explanatory variables are all highly statistically significant), calculate
the predicted number of medals for each country, and then calculate the
difference between the actual and the predicted number of medals.

Here is the ranking of countries in terms of number of medals in excess of
their potential:

+--------------------------------------------------------------+
| country actual predicted difference|
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
1. | Austria 57 11.71349 45.28651 |
2. | Germany 74 41.37078 32.62922 |
3. | Korea, South 32 8.26924 23.73076 |
4. | United States 61 38.63258 22.36742 |
5. | Switzerland 33 10.81501 22.18499 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
6. | Canada 55 45.37051 9.629486 |
7. | Russian Federation 52 42.88383 9.116169 |
8. | Estonia 12 3.550259 8.449741 |
9. | Croatia 8 1.252071 6.747929 |
10. | Sweden 37 31.71264 5.287365 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
11. | Norway 33 29.29696 3.703037 |
12. | Italy 26 22.84014 3.159863 |
13. | Australia 5 1.914053 3.085947 |
14. | China 21 18.55213 2.447872 |
15. | Bulgaria 2 1.00089 .9991095 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
16. | Solomon Islands 0 1.05e-12 -1.05e-12 |
17. | Congo 0 1.32e-12 -1.32e-12 |
18. | Guinea-Bissau 0 5.48e-12 -5.48e-12 |
19. | Dominica 0 7.63e-12 -7.63e-12 |
20. | Burundi 0 1.81e-11 -1.81e-11 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
21. | Comoros 0 1.91e-11 -1.91e-11 |
22. | Sierra Leone 0 2.44e-11 -2.44e-11 |
23. | Saint Vincent and Grenadines 0 3.35e-11 -3.35e-11 |
24. | Grenada 0 4.28e-11 -4.28e-11 |
25. | Djibouti 0 5.55e-11 -5.55e-11 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
26. | Vanuatu 0 6.42e-11 -6.42e-11 |
27. | Western Samoa 0 1.76e-10 -1.76e-10 |
28. | Saint Lucia 0 1.81e-10 -1.81e-10 |
29. | Guyana 0 2.38e-10 -2.38e-10 |
30. | Rwanda 0 4.05e-10 -4.05e-10 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
31. | Central African Republic 0 4.38e-10 -4.38e-10 |
32. | St Kitts & Nevis 0 4.38e-10 -4.38e-10 |
33. | Gambia, The 0 1.35e-09 -1.35e-09 |
34. | Gabon 0 1.43e-09 -1.43e-09 |
35. | Antigua and Barbuda 0 1.44e-09 -1.44e-09 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
36. | Tonga 0 2.33e-09 -2.33e-09 |
37. | Benin 0 5.07e-09 -5.07e-09 |
38. | Equatorial Guinea 0 5.08e-09 -5.08e-09 |
39. | Togo 0 5.39e-09 -5.39e-09 |
40. | Belize 0 6.95e-09 -6.95e-09 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
41. | Eritrea 0 1.30e-08 -1.30e-08 |
42. | Cape Verde 0 1.63e-08 -1.63e-08 |
43. | Malawi 0 2.20e-08 -2.20e-08 |
44. | Congo, Dem. Rep. (Zaire) 0 2.33e-08 -2.33e-08 |
45. | Tanzania 0 2.42e-08 -2.42e-08 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
46. | Uganda 0 2.81e-08 -2.81e-08 |
47. | Kenya 0 3.12e-08 -3.12e-08 |
48. | Papua New Guinea 0 3.46e-08 -3.46e-08 |
49. | Chad 0 1.53e-07 -1.53e-07 |
50. | Zambia 0 2.01e-07 -2.01e-07 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
51. | Barbados 0 2.30e-07 -2.30e-07 |
52. | Niger 0 3.62e-07 -3.62e-07 |
53. | Burkina Faso 0 3.67e-07 -3.67e-07 |
54. | Cameroon 0 5.38e-07 -5.38e-07 |
55. | Guinea 0 7.02e-07 -7.02e-07 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
56. | Ecuador 0 7.30e-07 -7.30e-07 |
57. | Mali 0 7.50e-07 -7.50e-07 |
58. | Fiji 0 7.69e-07 -7.69e-07 |
59. | Cote d'Ivoire 0 8.48e-07 -8.48e-07 |
60. | Mauritania 0 9.47e-07 -9.47e-07 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
61. | Nicaragua 0 1.07e-06 -1.07e-06 |
62. | Yemen 0 1.42e-06 -1.42e-06 |
63. | Trinidad and Tobago 0 1.62e-06 -1.62e-06 |
64. | Senegal 0 1.73e-06 -1.73e-06 |
65. | Panama 0 1.79e-06 -1.79e-06 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
66. | Lao People's Dem Rep 0 1.94e-06 -1.94e-06 |
67. | Ethiopia 0 2.25e-06 -2.25e-06 |
68. | Ghana 0 4.01e-06 -4.01e-06 |
69. | Cambodia 0 5.79e-06 -5.79e-06 |
70. | Honduras 0 7.37e-06 -7.37e-06 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
71. | Angola 0 7.96e-06 -7.96e-06 |
72. | Madagascar 0 8.48e-06 -8.48e-06 |
73. | Jamaica 0 9.32e-06 -9.32e-06 |
74. | Mozambique 0 .0000109 -.0000109 |
75. | Haiti 0 .0000139 -.0000139 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
76. | Sri Lanka 0 .0000222 -.0000222 |
77. | Costa Rica 0 .0000282 -.0000282 |
78. | Bolivia 0 .0000308 -.0000308 |
79. | Swaziland 0 .0000321 -.0000321 |
80. | Singapore 0 .000039 -.000039 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
81. | El Salvador 0 .000046 -.000046 |
82. | Lesotho 0 .0000571 -.0000571 |
83. | Bahamas 0 .0000604 -.0000604 |
84. | Namibia 0 .0000849 -.0000849 |
85. | Mauritius 0 .0000913 -.0000913 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
86. | Nigeria 0 .000099 -.000099 |
87. | Macau 0 .0001409 -.0001409 |
88. | Sudan 0 .0001506 -.0001506 |
89. | Botswana 0 .0001582 -.0001582 |
90. | Malaysia 0 .0002234 -.0002234 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
91. | Guatemala 0 .0002491 -.0002491 |
92. | Venezuela 0 .0004746 -.0004746 |
93. | Zimbabwe 0 .0005032 -.0005032 |
94. | Peru 0 .0006553 -.0006553 |
95. | Colombia 0 .000659 -.000659 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
96. | Bahrain 0 .0009202 -.0009202 |
97. | Paraguay 0 .0009835 -.0009835 |
98. | Tajikistan 0 .0012667 -.0012667 |
99. | Dominican Republic 0 .0019072 -.0019072 |
100. | Oman 0 .0019086 -.0019086 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
101. | Nepal 0 .0032192 -.0032192 |
102. | Indonesia 0 .0045286 -.0045286 |
103. | Vietnam 0 .0048126 -.0048126 |
104. | Jordan 0 .0066061 -.0066061 |
105. | Malta 0 .0074644 -.0074644 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
106. | Kyrgyzstan 0 .0094806 -.0094806 |
107. | Mongolia 0 .0105449 -.0105449 |
108. | Armenia 0 .0117748 -.0117748 |
109. | Philippines 0 .0120737 -.0120737 |
110. | Puerto Rico 0 .0139245 -.0139245 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
111. | Lebanon 0 .0142337 -.0142337 |
112. | Cyprus 0 .025774 -.025774 |
113. | Kuwait 0 .0286772 -.0286772 |
114. | Moldova 0 .0291695 -.0291695 |
115. | Georgia 0 .0297621 -.0297621 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
116. | United Arab Emirates 0 .0328131 -.0328131 |
117. | Uruguay 0 .05018 -.05018 |
118. | Thailand 0 .0512996 -.0512996 |
119. | Albania 0 .0519122 -.0519122 |
120. | Turkmenistan 0 .0593943 -.0593943 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
121. | Bangladesh 0 .0648855 -.0648855 |
122. | Macedonia (Former Yug. Rep) 0 .0803083 -.0803083 |
123. | Azerbaijan 0 .0826263 -.0826263 |
124. | Brazil 0 .1311922 -.1311922 |
125. | Hong Kong 0 .1432699 -.1432699 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
126. | Syria 0 .1472411 -.1472411 |
127. | Tunisia 0 .1882493 -.1882493 |
128. | Uzbekistan 0 .2046452 -.2046452 |
129. | Morocco 0 .2167027 -.2167027 |
130. | Algeria 0 .2352737 -.2352737 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
131. | Egypt 0 .246479 -.246479 |
132. | Czech Republic 9 9.272709 -.2727089 |
133. | Saudi Arabia 0 .3674125 -.3674125 |
134. | Chile 0 .3711534 -.3711534 |
135. | Pakistan 0 .4254185 -.4254185 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
136. | Israel 0 .5521668 -.5521668 |
137. | Mexico 0 1.167674 -1.167674 |
138. | South Africa 0 1.359279 -1.359279 |
139. | Slovenia 0 1.423324 -1.423324 |
140. | India 0 1.569418 -1.569418 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
141. | Slovak Republic 2 3.69663 -1.69663 |
142. | Iran 0 1.747232 -1.747232 |
143. | New Zealand 0 1.825105 -1.825105 |
144. | Belarus 2 4.091399 -2.091399 |
145. | Latvia 1 3.170279 -2.170279 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
146. | Luxembourg 0 2.495728 -2.495728 |
147. | Kazakhstan 0 2.992767 -2.992767 |
148. | Greece 0 3.189528 -3.189528 |
149. | Portugal 0 3.260904 -3.260904 |
150. | Argentina 0 3.539975 -3.539975 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
151. | Romania 0 4.528213 -4.528213 |
152. | Netherlands 20 24.73069 -4.730688 |
153. | Lithuania 0 4.911946 -4.911946 |
154. | Turkey 0 5.13253 -5.13253 |
155. | Iceland 0 5.836712 -5.836712 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
156. | Hungary 0 5.903072 -5.903072 |
157. | Ukraine 2 8.668637 -6.668637 |
158. | France 20 28.57849 -8.578491 |
159. | Ireland 0 12.73435 -12.73435 |
160. | Spain 0 13.09147 -13.09147 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
161. | Finland 15 28.87234 -13.87234 |
162. | Poland 3 19.49655 -16.49655 |
163. | Belgium 0 17.07919 -17.07919 |
164. | Japan 4 22.16186 -18.16186 |
165. | Denmark 0 19.48073 -19.48073 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------|
166. | United Kingdom 2 41.46468 -39.46468 |
+--------------------------------------------------------------+

..


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