Re: U19 RWC semi line-up

Ernest_the_Sheep@xxxxxxxxxxx wrote:
On Apr 18, 9:06 pm, Sean Byrne <byrne_sean_spamt...@xxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:

Ernest_the_Sh...@xxxxxxxxxxx wrote:

On Apr 18, 2:25 am, rick boyd <b...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

The Green Phantom wrote:

Sean Byrne wrote:

Walter Mitty wrote:

"Uncle Bully" <wakeupc...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> writes:

"didgerman" <didger...@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:o4OUh.947$537.180@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

rick boyd wrote:

Andrew Dunford wrote:

I doubt anyone thinks the best team should 'automatically' win. However I imagine many subscribe to the theory that the best team
should play the best rugby and win.

Going by the law of averages, even the best team should win the
lottery occasionally.

They probably will. Occasionally.

-- rick boyd

Just not as occasionally as some others....

Too small a sample to be significant.
Come back in 40 years or so when luck is ironed out of the
probability curve.

Out of maybe 4 teams who could win it,

Australia, NZ, SA, England, France, and now Ireland.

and there is an overwhelming

favorite, you need to reassess your idea of lottery.

An event where chance plays a part. How does the presence of an
overwhelming favourite change that?

Come come Sean. The presence of an overwhelming favourite in this case
could be seen as the case of one of the lottery contestants having more
tickets than the others, thus reducing the odds for that player.

Indeedley doodly, Your Greenness. But until the overwhelming favourite
has ALL the tickets, a lottery it remains. Having one million tickets
does not make it any more likely that any one of those million will be
drawn than the one million and oneth ticket.

Yes it does. If we have a lottery draw with n tickets in total, and
you have a million of them, and someone else has one ticket, then the
chance that you win is a one million times greater than that of the
person with just one ticket.

Read Rick's post again Ernie. He mentioned the probability of a ticket
being drawn, not the probability of winning.


Rick wrote:

"Having one million tickets does not make it any more likely that any
one of those million will be drawn than the one million and oneth
ticket."

Seems pretty clear to me, Sean. But if you have an alternative
interpretation as to what it might imply, please feel free to
enlighten me.



It implies that 1/1,000,001 = 1/1,000,001.

"does not make it any more likely that any ONE of those..."

Whereas you wasted your time trying to prove that 1,000,000/1,000,001 > 1/1,000,0001, which is not what Rick was saying.


Later,
Sean
.

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