Re: 'Very Active' Hurricane Season Predicted


"Lord Gow333, Conservative Fullback!" <lordgow@xxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
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"~Îñ©üßu§~" <sckfkrt@xxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
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DENVER - The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be "very active,"
with nine hurricanes and a good chance that at least one major
hurricane will hit the U.S. coast, a top researcher said Tuesday.

Are these the same assholes that made the same prediction last year only
to have a couple of quasi-hurricanes fizzle out somewhere near shore?

It's partly the media's fault for not explaining what scientists mean with
these predictions, but all they are are _median_ predictions. Meterology has
come a long, long way, even in just the last twenty years, but there is
still no way to predict exactly how many hurricanes and tropical storms are
going to form months in advance. What climatologists _can_ do is take note
of certain meterological conditions and trends going into the season that
could give them a _rough_ _estimate_ of how bad the hurricane season is
going to be. The problem with that is that it doesn't make for as catchy a
news bite when things aren't put in concrete terms, or information or
predictions are given with caveats, so yes, in this case it is indeed the
media's fault.

Think of it in gambling terms: nine Atlantic hurricanes is the _over/under_
prediction this year.



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