Target Practice: TD’s and Yardage Points per Target ('02-'07)
- From: JGalligan <crackajg@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sat, 30 Aug 2008 21:39:12 -0700 (PDT)
I’m not going to try and hard sell you on why targets are important,
don’t worry. If you are doubtful that they can be helpful, or you just
don't know what they are exactly, then you can go do a Google search
or something. What do I look like? To give a related summary though, I
brought up some concerns in the previous version about how the fantasy
points per target statistic may have been to general. Those concerns,
when looked at closer, did turn out to be quite warranted. So the only
other thing to do was start all over but this time with a more
specific set of statistics. That also included breaking everything
down by year instead of just the totals.
Those specific statistics are touchdowns per target and yardage points
per target. Touchdowns per target (or TDs/Tg as it will now be known)
are pretty self-explanatory. It’s the amount of TD’s a given player
scores for every target they receive.
The other statistic is yardage points per target (YPts/Tg), which is
the amount of fantasy points a player accrues with touchdowns (6
points per TD) subtracted. For instance, if Johnny Rocket had 100
fantasy points in 2007 and 6 TD’s, his yardage points for the year
would be 64. This isn’t rocket science, people.
To start off, I broke the target stats up by year (since 2002) with
the help of the Game Log Dominator. I wanted to get a good gauge of
the fluctuations between YPts/Tg and TDs/Tg each year. The only cap
for inclusion in each category was a minimum of 40 total targets for
the season. Before we get into the analysis, here’s a nice picture of
the spreadsheet for your viewing pleasure (you need to click the link
as it wouldn't fit in here):
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_BGLpMygDmwY/SLoTxHNd1VI/AAAAAAAAAUI/Sq9usXKT_ak/s1600-h/TDandYPtperTgPic3.jpg
Assuming that you don’t have 100/20 vision and couldn’t read that
spreadsheet for detail, allow me to break it down for you, as well as
suggest that you perhaps see an eye doctor. And thank you, I know I
have the ill Excel spreadsheet skills. But anyway, let's begin.
Here’s a breakdown for the amount of players in each year’s list that
were NOT on it the year prior:
Yardage points per target
2002-2003: 18 players
2003-2004: 12 players
2004-2005: 12 players
2005-2006: 10 players
2006-2007: 17 players
Touchdowns per target
2002-2003: 17 players
2003-2004: 13 players
2004-2005: 13 players
2005-2006: 12 players
2006-2007: 14 players
I don’t think you need to be a math whiz to come to the conclusion
that there’s a lot of WR’s that break into each stats Top 20 list
every year. It can likely be attributed to many things. One, the WR
position is the most difficult to consistently put up big numbers.
This is due to a variety of factors, including but not limited to:
Different QB’s, other WR’s, rookies, contract years, pure laziness,
and age. Two, the WR corps on most teams can often be wide open and
vary drastically from year to year. Unlike the QB and RB positions,
where the starter only needs to worry about 1 or 2 possible
replacements, WR’s need to worry about 3 or 4. Studs aside, it’s a
very hard position to solidify a guaranteed position in. Especially in
the financial landscape the NFL is experiencing right now.
You also may have noticed that both stats have relatively similar
changes each year. The TDs/Tg list tends to have more veterans and
solid journeyman grace its rankings whereas YPts/Tg is a haven for
young, talented WR’s break out into. The young player then matures and
either makes the jump to the TD s/Tg list or finds he is talented
enough to gain vaunted, both-list status. The cycle goes on and on. It
makes sense, too. What kind of idiot would focus his red zone targets
on a rookie unless he either a) Has hardly any quality receivers, or
b) Has a Herman Moore in-his-prime-esque rookie talent? I’m not sure,
but I know that I wouldn’t want him coaching my team.
On the recently broached topic of both-lists, though, let’s take a
look at how many players found themselves onto both the TDs/Tg list
and the YPts/Tg list each year:
Wide Receivers on both the TDs/Tg and YPts/Tg lists
2002: 8 players
2003: 12 players
2004: 11 players
2005: 12 players
2006: 13 players
2007: 11 players
Even some of the top WR’s who were consistently on at least one list
each year managed to top more than 50% of their time in the league
(since 2002) on both. Save for Reggie Wayne, who was on both lists
every single year but one. Guy’s an absolute machine.
In the interests of putting what getting on these Top 20 lists into
perspective, here’s the average minimum stat lines by year:
YPts/Tg Minimum Stat Lines Per Year
2002: 80 targets, 93 fantasy points, 690 receiving yards, 4 TD’s
2003: 76 targets, 81 fantasy points, 690 receiving yards, 2 TD’s
2004: 89 targets, 95 fantasy points, 830 receiving yards, 2 TD’s
2005: 70 targets, 77 fantasy points, 710 receiving yards, 1 TD
2006: 70 targets, 87 fantasy points, 630 receiving yards, 4 TD’s
2007: 77 targets, 79 fantasy points, 730 receiving yards, 1 TD
TDs/Tg Minimum Stat Lines Per Year
2002: 70 targets, 71 fantasy points, 470 receiving yards, 4 TD’s
2003: 103 targets, 99 fantasy points, 630 receiving yards, 6 TD’s
2004: 87 targets, 93 fantasy points, 570 receiving yards, 6 TD’s
2005: 109 targets, 110 fantasy points, 680 receiving yards, 7 TD’s
2006: 84 targets, 86 fantasy points, 440 receiving yards, 7 TD’s
2007: 71 targets, 93 fantasy points, 630 receiving yards, 5 TD’s
Aaaand the minimum averages combined over the last six years:
YPts/Tg ‘02-‘07 Top 20 minimum stats average: 77 targets, 85 fantasy
points, 730 receiving yards, 2 TD’s
TDs/Tg ’02-’07 Top 20 minimum stats averages: 87 targets, 92 fantasy
points, 560 receiving yards, 6 TD’s
What’s that? Those stat lines suck you say? Well, this whole thing
isn’t meant for you to somehow find the next Terrell Owens or Randy
Moss. It’s meant to give a statistical low point on which you should
get if you target the players correctly. It’s the minimum. On average,
11 new players will be on each respective list at the end of next
year. That’s 22 possible players to research who could potentially get
net you a decent amount of fantasy points. They may not be a stud, but
they could be a blossoming one. They may not win you a title by
themselves, but they could help you in a couple of key spot starts
throughout the season that prove critical to your acquisition of the
Hefty Aluminum Foil Champions Trophy. See where this is going?
Unlike in the last article, where I tried to Nostradamus every exact
fill-in all by myself, let’s take a look at the players who have the
potential or lack thereof to get on the lists next year. But first,
let’s sum up what type of players will find themselves on either list
(excluding the elite WR shoo-ins):
Yardage points per target list
- Often young, inexperienced or both (rookies).
- Usually quick, nimble receivers who are good at gaining yards after
the catch.
- Not usually a target of the QB in the red zone.
- Very likely to be a WR2 or WR3.
Touchdown points per target list
- Often experienced veterans and/or solid journeyman wide outs.
- Usually big-bodied possession receivers.
- Often a target in the end zone, but sometimes not the top one.
- Could be a WR1 or WR2 because of their scoring ability and
experience.
Now, taking those two lists, you can more easily target WR’s who will
fall into one of the two categories. It makes it easier to go and see
just how many people you think will fall out of the Top 20, especially
since it fluctuates year to year. So it’s not always exactly 11
exclusions.
To get your brain going, here are the 2007 Top 20’s, the mortal locks
to stay on them, some possible players who may fall of them and then
followed by those who could possibly gain access into the ranks next
year:
2007 Top 20 in Yardage Points per Target
1 Santonio Holmes
2 Greg Jennings
3 Joey Galloway
4 Andre Johnson
5 Reggie Wayne
6 Terrell Owens
7 Antwaan Randle El
8 Donte Stallworth
9 Randy Moss
10 Chad Johnson
11 Jerricho Cotchery
12 Calvin Johnson
13 David Patten
14 Brandon Stokley
15 Justin Gage
16 Roddy White
17 Anquan Boldin
18 Donald Driver
19 Patrick Crayton
20 Dennis Northcutt
Mortal Locks To Remain On List:
Reggie Wayne
Terrell Owens
Randy Moss
Santonio Holmes**
** Interesting note: The #1 ranked player on the YPts/Tg list failed
to make the list the following year in every year but one. That was
Lee Evans in 2004-2005 and he finished 20th the following year
(barely). What am I getting at? Well, just that he may not be a
‘mortal’ lock, but since he’s on my fantasy team I’ll throw him on
there.
Possible Dropouts:
Antwaan Randle El
Justin Gage
Dennis Northcutt
Joey Galloway
Possible Non-Elite 2008 Additions:
Dwayne Bowe
Desean Jackson
Lee Evans
Reggie Brown
James Jones
Ted Ginn Jr.
Sidney Rice
2007 Top 20 in Touchdowns per Target
1 Randy Moss
2 Greg Jennings
3 Terrell Owens
4 Braylon Edwards
5 Nate Burleson
6 Santonio Holmes
7 Andre Johnson
8 Anquan Boldin
9 Patrick Crayton
10 Plaxico Burress
11 Marques Colston
12 T.J. Houshmandzadeh
13 Brandon Stokley
14 Laveranues Coles
15 Reggie Wayne
16 Hines Ward
17 Joey Galloway
18 Larry Fitzgerald
19 Jerry Porter
20 Wes Welker
Mortal Locks To Remain On List:
Randy Moss
Terrell Owens
Santonio Holmes
Plaxico Burress
Braylon Edwards
Marques Colston
Reggie Wayne
Larry Fitzgerald
Possible Dropouts:
Brandon Stokley
Hines Ward
Jerry Porter
Possible Non-Elite 2008 Additions:
Dwayne Bowe
Roddy White
Jerricho Cotchery
Roy Williams
Lee Evans
Santana Moss
Limas Sweed
The assignment my class, is to pick the 9-10 players that you think
will absolutely stay on the list next year. Then, take a look at the
following list and pick the difference from 20 as to who you think
will break onto the list next year. And one rookie has made the YPts/
Tg list in each of the last 3 years, so take that into account if you
wish. Have fun and feel free to leave your findings in the replies.
.
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