Re: to snake or not to snake
- From: "Schaeffer" <elvisx@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 01:23:15 -0400
> cahgoonis wrote:
> I hate the snake method of drafting. It just doesn't seem fair for the 1st
> pick to be penalized by not picking again until 23 picks later (12 team
> league) in the second round. As far as the 12th pick goes, picking 2 in a
> row at the end of the 1st & beginning of the second is great, but they
don't
> pick again for an eternity. Does anyone have a different, more fair way of
> drafting without drawing a new draft order after every round?
> Thanks.
History seems to bear this out regarding early picks (and late) in drafts
where all of the participants actually know what they're doing. In drafts
where there are at least a couple of "inexperienced" owners, the whole
theory/system is null ...the inexperienced prove to be too much of a "wild
card" and skew the results.
In "expert" drafts, the numbers show (not accumulated by me ...I read it
from what I consider to be a reliable source) given a minimum 12 team draft
of at least 14 rounds, show that winning teams come from those who pick in
the 7th, 8th, or 9th slot in the serpentine draft format at a slightly
higher (noticeable) percentage than those who don't. This tends to support
the theory that picking either very early, or very late in this style of
draft tends to punish the owner. However, it's difficult to rationalize
picking Ladanian Tomlinson as an unfortunate event.
The league that I participate in uses the serpentine method for 12 teams
and 14 rounds. The franchise names are drawn from a hat, and the owner
selected gets to choose which number he'd like to be (1 through 12). At
least, this way, someone fortunate enough to get an early draw ha a little
more control over their future. That said, in six years with this
particular group, not one person who got to draw first neglected to opt for
the first pick. That includes me ...last year selecting LT2. So, even
knowing what I know, I went for the 1st selection and then of course, my
next pick was the 24th. Had I gone say 7th, then I would have picked again
at 18th. Unless there's incredible parity of RBs who catch the ball, given
the choice, I'd take 1st every time.
And to finally answer your question about "more fair way", ...the
serpentine method is the most fair numerically, though obviously, the more
teams in the draft, the more it accentuates the "gap". We compensate
somewhat, by making the waiver wire a reverse order of the draft order until
team win/loss records effect it. If you really sit down with pencil and
paper and try to "balance" the draft selection order, you'll find whether
you play even/odd or other division methods, someone always gets an
advantage.
Using the "auction" method of drafting does solve this problem. Even
though the serpentine order is maintained, any owner can "bid" on any player
chosen by any other owner. The player picked is open to bids from all other
owners (as long as they have the capital), it means that even if you pick
10th, you may still end up with the first pick in the draft on your roster
....and vice versa. That goes a long way to "equalizing" the draft order
advantage/disadvantage. It also makes the draft process a bit more complex,
but the extra interactivity makes it a more interesting and possibly
exciting experience. And of course, if you run a "Dynasty League", then the
draft process is considerably minimized each season after the initial
"keeper" draft.
Schaeffer
.
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