Let the poll geekery begin
Nate Silver has started his modeling for the 2012 election, complete
with detailed explanation of model and methodology.
Bottom line: Obama has "tenuous advantage"
Some interesting results:
EVs: Obama 290, Romney 247
"Tipping point states": Virginia and Ohio
86% chance Obama loses at least one state he won in 2008
28% chance Obama wins at least one state he lost in 2008
Neither NC nor Wisconsin are the swing states they are reputed to be.
Plenty of geekery to waste an afternoon on.
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Relevant Pages
- Obama and the Graveyard of Empires
... Obama and the Graveyard of Empires ... a 50-50 chance Obama will be a lame duck after the 2010 mid-terms sounds about right. ... But make that a 90-10 chance if Obama, on top of all that, gets Afghanistan wrong and, like Lyndon Johnson, steps into a quagmire. ...
(uk.politics.misc) - Obama and the Graveyard of Empires
... Obama and the Graveyard of Empires ... a 50-50 chance Obama will be a lame duck after the 2010 mid-terms sounds about right. ... But make that a 90-10 chance if Obama, on top of all that, gets Afghanistan wrong and, like Lyndon Johnson, steps into a quagmire. ...
(uk.religion.islam) - Re: Let the poll geekery begin
... Bottom line: Obama has "tenuous advantage" ... "Tipping point states": Virginia and Ohio ... 86% chance Obama loses at least one state he won in 2008 ...
(rec.sport.football.college) - Re: OT: Ive had enough
... insane and Obama is a market destroying socialist. ... Bottom line: Bush (yes, with plenty of help from other prior ... adminstrations) destroyed the financial system by allowing Wall Street to ...
(alt.vacation.las-vegas) - OT - "Caterpillar CEOs letter talks of leaving Illinois"
... you can measure America's bottom line by looking at ... Caterpillar's bottom line," Obama said ... invest," Oberhelman wrote in the letter obtained Friday by the Lee ... looking at Caterpillar's bottom line," America hates higher taxes and ...
(alt.sports.basketball.nba.la-lakers) |
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