Re: YA Airline Memobitch...

Carl Banks <pavlovevidence@xxxxxxxxx> wrote in
news:42d4670a-f59b-41c8-b051-db8c57e7b0e2@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx:

On Jun 18, 12:18 pm, The BorgMan <m...@xxxxxx> wrote:
Carl Banks <pavlovevide...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote in
news:d8822138-8b39-45cf-
bf51-422231604...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx:



Since the 1970s (at least), airplanes have a better track record of
safety than trains. Realize that, whatever objection you have, the
statisticians have already taken it into account when determining
this.

Define "safety"

Since 1970 <300 people have died due to train accidents in the United
States.

1996-2005 deaths per 100 million passenger miles:

Passenger autos - .81
Buses - .04
Airlines - .05
Rail - .02

Oops... you're about twice as likely to die in an airplane as on a
train.

You pulled those statistics out of your ass. How pathetic of you.

No, I pulled those statistics from the FRA and the NTSB. I did screw up
copying them though -

Rail - .05
Air - .02

So a train is about twice as likely to kill you as an airline, but then
the airline numbers do ignore cargo planes.

They are either dead wrong, or, I suspect (if you did get them from a
shady web site) misleading in a significant aspect.

Try this one (and I can produce lots more, if you want):

http://tinyurl.com/4fgeed


1986-1995 vs. 1996-2005

....and those numbers are per billion passenger miles.

There numbers vs. mine:

Air Them - .21/billion passenger miles = .021/100 million passenger miles

Air me - .02/100 million passenger miles

Number seems pretty accurate to me.


Rail them - .81/billion passenger mile = .081/100 million passenger miles

Rail me - .05./100 million passenger miles

Apparently trains were a bit safer 1996-2005 than they were 1986-1995.




I will say, in fairness, that 9/11 skewed the statistics quite a bit
and today these stats would be a lot closer. The fact that a small
number of incidents can skew results so much should tell you how
useless these statistics are--this is why I said, quite deliberately,
that airplanes have a better track record, not that airplanes are
safer.

Yet the airplane statistics show basically no change at all 1996-2005 vs.
1986-1995, and the former contains 9/11.

You claimed airplanes have had a better track record since 1970. I'd say
it's reasonably close either way.

By the way, what field related to transportation do you have a
master's degree in again? What transportation-related job do you have
again? Oh yeah.

Your degree doesn't seem to be generating any brilliant analyses.



I think you might be the one with the statistics problem.

I think your problem is an over-inflated sense of your own expertise.

I'm not the one saying the Federal Railroad administration and the NTSB
are wrong.

--
Aaron
.

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