Re: Which is rarer?
- From: arahim <arahim_arahim@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 23 Apr 2007 12:57:32 -0700
On Apr 23, 7:01 am, "tendulkar.com" <tendulkar....@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Apr 23, 8:51 am, linus <lavinia...@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Apr 23, 5:41 am, Rats <crapats...@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
6 6s in an over (Gibbs) or 4 wickets in 4 balls (Malinga)
In ODI cricket, one could say that they are equally rare as they were
done only once.
Thats stupid logic. Comparing actual events to get the probability
when you are talking about extremely low probability event
Yes.
Even by crude probability theory,
In an ODI,
MS Dhoni hits a sixer every 32 balls,
Waqar Younis takes a wicket every 30 balls
Not to quibble but Afridi hits a six every 20 balls
Mat Inns NO Runs HS Ave BF SR 100 50 4s 6s Ct St
ODIs 238 226 10 4998 109 23.13 4598 108.69 4 27 468 225 83 0
That would be still a much lower probability.
Iteration 1This is rather simplistic but you should not only calculate the
Assuming independent* events,
P(Waqar taking 4 wickets in 4 balls) = 1/30 * 1/30 * 1/30 * 1/30 = or
1 in 810,000
P(Dhoni hitting 6 sixers in 6 balls) = 1/33 * 1/33 * 1/33 * 1/33 *
1/33 * 1/33 = or 1 in 1,291,467,969
probability but also the number of chances for each to happen in an
innings.
eg if in a bag there are ten balls 9 black one red then probability of
drawing a red (with replacement)is 0.1.
If in another bag you have 8 black balls and two blue then probability
of drawing a blue (with replacement after each draw) is 0.2.
Let us say the "game" is to draw one ball from the blue ball bag and
two from the red ball bag (all with replacement) then after a 100
games you would have drawn about 20 blue ball and 20 red balls. Even
though the probabilities were different the occurence of the events is
about the same because you get a lot more chances at the red ball bag.
In an innings there are 50 overs and therefore 50 shots at achieving
this feat (at best).
A bowler can bowl a max of 60 deliveries. In the best case scenario
there are always four or more wickets left for him to take. He can
start taking his wickets on 57 diferent occasions.
Therefore Hitting 6 sixers in 6 balls is about 1600 times more
difficult
Iteration 2
* Of course hitting sixers & taking wickets are not independent
events, they are slightly dependent. However this dependency actually
favors taking wickets than hitting sixers because
a) When a bowler takes a wicket
-A new unset batsman is in, who always has a higher probability of
getting out.
-The bowler is in full control of which ball to bowl.
-More importantly the bowler is still trying to get a wicket.
-All the fielders will move into wicket taking positions
b) If a batsman has hit a sixer,
- he may not want to try another one because of the risk factor.
- The bowler may bowl a really wide delivery or an unreachable
bouncer.
- All the fielders may go on the boundary to create doubt in the minds
of the batsman
All this means is P(6/6) would go even lower compared to P(4/4
wickets)
I can never imagine anyone hitting 6/6 in a non-minnow match, while I
can easily see bowlers getting 4/4. After all many have got 3/3.
Another easy reference point is to look at # of 5 sixers in 5 balls vs
3 wickets in 3 balls. Which is rarer?
Iteration 3
P(5 Sixers in 5 balls) * P(hitting a six) <<<<< P(3 wickets in 3
balls) * P(Getting a wicket)?
QED
.
- Follow-Ups:
- Re: Which is rarer?
- From: Matsya
- Re: Which is rarer?
- References:
- Which is rarer?
- From: Rats
- Re: Which is rarer?
- From: linus
- Re: Which is rarer?
- From: tendulkar.com
- Which is rarer?
- Prev by Date: Re: Piece on Navjot Sidhu (aka Sherry)
- Next by Date: Re: World Cup 2007 finals odds
- Previous by thread: Re: Which is rarer?
- Next by thread: Re: Which is rarer?
- Index(es):
Relevant Pages
|
