Re: When to Pushout


"Ed Chauvin IV" <edcfour@xxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:vpcna3h9mo77sfibakd0chqfrfe5tbcm3i@xxxxxxxxxx
Mere moments before death, "Bob Keller" <bk42762@xxxxxxxxxxx> hastily
scrawled:


"Ed Chauvin IV" <edcfour@xxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:ffmma39qtnqgbokc94fghc9af0vhs7hbbh@xxxxxxxxxx

You've also conceded that there are 50/50 positions at other times.
Explain why the shooter's odds change due to coming to the push.

Oh, and lest you waste your time repeating yourself, the choice of
returning the shot does not change the odds of winning the game. Just
as who gets to call heads/tails does not change the odds of a coin
flip. If a position is 50/50, then it's 50/50, no matter who
calls/flips.

Not true because a coin flip is random,

What, nothing random ever happens in pool?

Coin flips have no skill involved as pool does, therefore your comparison
of
a 50/50 coin flip and a 50/50 position on a pool table is not valid

Don't be ridiculous. A 50/50 position *is* a coin flip.

And THAT is our point of disagreement - I do not believe there CAN be a
50/50 position after a push-out in a REAL game of pool (not your
hypothetical game of pool) since the incoming player will take the shot more
often than not, regardless of how close to 50/50 YOU THINK the leave is, the
pusher is at a disadvantage because they are giving the push-ee first chance
to take control. That is a simple that fact of the game that every good
player I have ever met understands.

At any other time in pool,
if a shooter elects to attempt a difficult (for them) shot, they may
then
be
reducing their chancing of winning to 50%.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here, but why would you elect
to shoot a shot that reduces your odds of winning?

Because with only four balls left on the table they would rather STAY AT
THE
TABLE and try to complete the run than begin a safety battle.

Then that player has chosen the wrong shot. If the safety battle is
the higher percentage winning shot, then it is the right shot to take.
Regardless of what you'd rather do.

My point is that a safety battle with only four balls left (fewer place to
hide and easier to make a kick) can (not always is, but often can) be a
lower percentage option than the difficult shot in front of the opponent who
is running out. You asked when an opponent might shoot a shot that reduces
their chances of winning, I've presented one.
(In that situation it's also easier to assess the chances of winning by
shooting whereas the safety has all kinds of unknowns - will the safety be
executed well, will the opponent hit ball on the kick, where will cb and ob
end up after that kick, will I have to kick or play safe again or be able to
shoot, etc., etc., etc. - making it much harder to evaluate.

If you don't
understand this I have to assume that you just have a lot to learn about
9-ball.

There's really no need to be insulting.

There is no shame in not being a "good" player (we ALL have plenty to
learn), nor was there any insult intended. My point was that this
discussion will get way, way too long if I have to educate you on all of the
related aspects of the game in order to get you to understand the "pusher at
a disadvantage" principle. I've given you the benefit of the doubt up until
now, but it's getting hard to tell if you are just being argumentative for
arguments sake, or if you're really trying to have a meaningful discussion.


A shooter who has to elect to
push-out after the break is giving the other player the first choice to
shoot,

No. The shooter who elects to shoot has *taken* the first choice to
shoot, even if the shot he elects to shoot is a push. He is in
control of the table and determines what shots are available to his
opponent.

Uh, no, Ed. A push-out only gives the push-er the **opportunity** to
control the table IF it is returned. If the shot is not returned the
push-er has LOST the opportunity to control the table. The push shot in
itself does not give either player control at all.

You're looking at it all wrong, Bob. The pusher decides whether to
leave a hanging nine-ball on the table. The pusher decides whether to
leave a long think cut or a bank opportunity on the table. The pusher
decides whether to leave a jump shot on the table. The pusher is in
control of what is on the table when he offers his opponent the choice
of shooting or passing. The opponent is only in control of who shoots
at this point. If the opponent feels that shooting may give him
control of the table he then has the *opportunity* to gain control of
the table.


No, you are looking at it wrong - you said the push-er "has *taken* the
first choice to shoot .... he is control of the table". This is wrong
because control of the table is not determined until one or the other player
successfully pockets a ball or plays a safety. THAT is the difference
between a safe and any other shot.

And is the point of most of the remaining discussion that I've snipped from
below
snip

And just for the edification of those who are interested (Obviously, not
Ed), the adage above suggests that successful gamblers don't play the
percentages. Vegas always wins with only a slight percentage in their
favor
because they have an "unlimited" bankroll and table limits.

No, first of all Vegas casinos do *not* have unlimited bankrolls, they
just have very large bankrolls.

That's why I put the word "unlimited" in quotes, Ed.

They always win because they play the
percentages. Did you ever notice that there are no Coin Flip games
available in Vegas? You can't find a 50/50 proposition in a Vegas
casino because they don't make money on them.


Wrong - if the gambler had an unlimited bankroll and there were no table
limits the player could win by doubling his bet after every single loss.
This is called the Martindale progression and is a sure loser because the
gambler will always eventually run into the table limit. (Not to mention
that it gets pretty retarded to bet large sums of money to win the initial
small first bet.) Therefore, Vegas wins because they BOTH - control the
odds of the games to be slightly in their favor AND have table limits.

The successful
gambler cannot win by playing the percentages alone, but rather must
become
thoroughly knowledgable about their subject.

Complete knowledge about the subject is *how* one is able to play the
odds. It isn't some other strategy, it is a means to an end. It is
how you determine what the odds are.

As an example, a percentage
gambler will play the favorites at the horse track all day long and lose.

No, a gambler who is truly playing the percentages will never bet on
the favorites all day long. That player is just following the rest of
the sheep and betting on what everyone else thinks will win.

The successful gambler studies the race book for hours the day before,
talks
to the jockeys and trainers, watches the odds up to post time, and then
decides to play only one or two (or maybe no) races per day. Knowledge
and
skill is more important than knowing the percentages. This is the point
of
the adage that "percentage players always lose". And it holds true in
this
9-ball discussion, that the wisest choice for a push-out considers
strongly
you own skills and knowledge and does not chase some imaginary 50%
position.


I noticed you ignored the above. It's important - the difference between a
percentage player and a knowledgable gambler. (Unfortunately, even the best
skilled gamblers also often loses!)


Your statement is by an amateur
coin flipper, making a statement about a random event and is thus easily
assessed as to its validity. My statement is from a reputable
professional
who is highly skilled in the topic of discussion which is a game of skill,

No, the topic of discussion is not actually a game of skill, but
rather probabilities, on which Mr Hall is (I presume) not an expert.


No, the topic of discussion is pool, of which Mr. Hall is mostly definitely
an expert.
I notice you also clipped my points concerning "appeal to authority".

that in pool played at a high level the shooter is always the favorite.

Level, schmevel. The shooter is always the favorite at *every* level
of pool. Assuming, once again, little to no skill disparity.

False. As an exmple, when two players who have very little skill playing
9-ball are competing, whoever has first shot on the 1-ball has no bearing
whatsoever on the eventual winner of the game because the game will
continue
for many more innings with each player likely attempting to pocket each
ball
at least once.

And each time those players attempt to pocket the ball, the shooter is
the favorite, because the other guy can't do damned thing except sit
and wait for his opponent to miss.

The favorite to WIN, ED - to win the game! THAT is the friggin point. Read
it again.
I notice you also ignored my points concerning control of the table among
higher level and then pro players.
I don't think you're attempting an honest discussion.
Bob Keller


.

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