Re: NEWS; What if the Magic were gone?
- From: "Mike Kallay" <kallay@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 10 Jul 2006 18:55:03 -0700
mamoosh wrote:
You can't keep both cars but you need one to get around. Which are you
going to keep...the one that is well taken care of and runs well, or
SFMM?
mOOSH
Matthew, I love 'ya, but that's a horrible analogy.
The cars would have to be income producing, weighted to each other, to
really show the analogy properly.
Now, let's say your shiny new rims but neglected car sells hippie
lettuce pretty regularly -- at a nice profit of ~$20 million per year.
Let's say your other car in pristine shape sells a respectable but
lower $1 million per year worth of the chronic. But, you owe Minnesota
Keith $2.1 billion dollars. Is he gonna be happy if you sell off your
pimary money making pimped out but neglected ride? How is he gonna get
repaid all of his duckets when you've literally sold the golden goose?
Sure, he might seem happy to accept your $250 million up front, but
seeing as you've only paid ~10% of your debt back, and you've sold off
over 10% of your money making ability, is Keith gonna be happy? Or,
does he fear future payments won't materialize? I think it's the
latter.
The more I think about this potential sale, the more I think it's a bad
deal for Six Flags, its shareholders, and its creditors. However, it
might be potentially good for us, as a glimmer of hope now exists that
someone who gives a shit (tm) and has some resources might come in and
polish the old car and get that oil changed. Sure, there's a downside
-- it could be sold off for parts. But, I tend to agree with the quote
in the article about (someone) being crazy to stop operating as a theme
park with all of those new homes coming in. I really can't see someone
paying $250 mil for the land, having to gut it, put in all the
necessary infrastructure (utilities, roads, etc.), and here's the big
one: wait for the moment in 2 or 3 years when money starts coming back
in after halting from the divestiture of the park and transforming the
land -- and be happy to do it. SFMM is almost turn-key. It's ready to
go -- just polish up the stuff that's been neglected, change the
positioning in the marketplace, and boom -- collect the receipts. And
guess what? It's secured! If you buy it for $250 mil, and some real
estate konkheads tell you they can get you $250 mil for the land,
you've just made a smart purchase! 'Ya bought the land, all the
infrasture, the intangibles and huge inheritance of a repeat audience,
plus some kick ass rides. And, you can eat your own churros.
Seriously. Let's get those midget real estate moguls to talk some sense
into potential buyers.
(http://i79.photobucket.com/albums/j143/PhilthyPhilanthropist/twins4.gif)
The only party that might be happy with homes and or businesses there
is the county, who stands to gain from bigger tax bases. That
/m
.
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