The K7RA SOLAR UPDATE ~ FROM THE ARRL
- From: N9OGL <toddaug555@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sat, 12 Apr 2008 23:22:18 -0700 (PDT)
The K7RA Solar Update
As of Thursday, April 10, there have been no sunspots for seven days.
We may see sunspots return around April 21-28. This is based on recent
activity rotating out of view around the Sun and (we hope) reappearing
later this month.
If you look Thursday's forecast, you will see the predicted solar flux
remaining at 70 until April 20 when it reaches 75, then 80 on April
21. The predicted higher solar flux should correlate with the return
of sunspots. This prediction is updated daily after 2100 UTC. After
2100 UTC April 11, you can see the new prediction by changing
041045DF.txt at the end of the URL to 041145DF.txt. You can also go
here to select a daily forecast from the list; sometimes there is a
delay before the latest forecast is listed and you can see it much
sooner by changing the date in the URL as shown above.
From that same forecast you can see quiet geomagnetic conditionspredicted until April 22-24. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts
quiet to unsettled conditions April 11, quiet April 12-13, quiet to
unsettled April 14, unsettled April 15, quiet to unsettled April 16
and back to quiet on April 17.
Rob Steenburgh, KA8JBY, of Longmont, Colorado, sent some links useful
for detecting sunspots on the Sun's far side, using helioseismography,
one at the National Solar Observatory and one at Stanford University.
Note that you can also animate these to see recent activity in motion.
The technique is described here.
Back on February 15, we mentioned an article in a daily business
publication that spoke of an upcoming Maunder Minimum. The article
contained fabricated quotes from Dr Kenneth Tapping who works at the
observatory in British Columbia where we get our daily solar flux
data. I was surprised to see this same article in the monthly VHF
column in CQ Magazine recently. But I saw it on March 31, and it was
the April issue. I understand that this was really supposed to be some
sort of April Fools jest, but it went awry, probably due to
miscommunication with the editor who was already running a
traditional, whimsical April item. Once edited, it lost the April 1
flavor.
Of course there is a long tradition in Amateur Radio publishing
regarding strange and fantastic articles in the April issue. Sometimes
it is difficult to tell. For instance, as a 12 year old, Novice I was
unaware of this tradition and was very interested to read in an April
QST about some new paint that could be applied to towers. It was
supposed to "shift" reflected light "outside the visible spectrum,"
and therefore render the structure invisible. Well, nearly so. It
should still block light from passing through it, but the article
claimed the effect was some kind of fuzzy non-image, a sort of visual
void of uncertain nature.
I didn't realize that this was a joke until reading the Correspondence
section in the May issue. Imaginative readers had a lot of fun with
this; one woman wrote that her ham husband was trying out the paint on
a recent Saturday and she hadn't seen him since.
Mike Schatzberg, W2AJI, of Tryon, North Carolina, wrote to report
conditions during the recent period when we actually had daily sunspot
activity. He was mentioned previously in this bulletin, November 17,
2006. He wrote again about excellent conditions on 20 meters. Mike
wrote on April 4, "I had to let you know about the unusual and steady
strong signals I have been working on 20 meters the past three days.
East Coast propagation to the Far East and Indonesia have been
extraordinary. Low power stations, with fewer than 100 W and wire
antennas abound, and I am able to read them with S5 to S9 signal
strengths on my Orion II transceiver.
"Two Americans, -- Chuck, HS0ZCX, with only 100 W and a wire beam
antenna, and Peter, XU7ACY (NO2R) -- have been booming into the East
Coast with S9 signals. They are heard during the morning hours at
about 1300 UTC, along with Ralph, HS0ZSC, who is also very strong.
Yan, YB0BCU, is always S9 from Jakarta during the same time period.
"The evening hours have also been a delight into the Orient.
Propagation remains good into Japan for much of the night, but many
lower power stations can also be worked on SSB from both China and
Taiwan. Last night, between 0100 and 0300 UTC, once you steer around
the many calling Asian Siberian stations, Japan, China and Taiwan were
extremely active. BD2QAF, BU2AQ and JA2AXB all had S5 or better
signals with low power.
"I should add that short path is again open in the evening hours back
into the South Pacific. Todd, ZL2SP, was mobile with 100 W and a
mobile whip and he was S5 here. VK signals were Q5 during this period
also. It seems that many American stations are not aware of the late
evening openings as yet, and the bands are really quiet while working
the low power DX. I have been using my usual 20 meter monoband Yagi
with 44 foot boom at 75 feet for DXing. It doesn't get much better
than this. Strong signals and little QRM. Enjoy!"
Mike sure has some nice antennas in a great location. See them here
and here. Note the last link shows he has been looked up more than
41,000 times on that site. That indicates a very active ham. His
personal web site also has photos of other stations and their
antennas. Don't miss VK3MO's photos here.
If this is just the beginning and we are still enjoying sunspots from
Solar Cycle 23 with little action from Cycle 24, how much better will
things get? I guess I better get my log periodic finished for the
higher bands, because 15 and 10 are already having their "DX Moments."
Amateur solar observer Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington,
provides this weekly report on solar conditions and propagation. This
report also is available via W1AW every Friday, and an abbreviated
version appears in The ARRL Letter. Check here for a detailed
explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin. An archive of past
propagation bulletins can be found here. You can find monthly
propagation charts between four USA regions and 12 overseas locations
here. Readers may contact the author via e-mail
.
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