Re: A Problem with Monty Hall

In article <BZudnYi5ttYWh3neRVn-hA@xxxxxxxxxxx>,
Eric Sosman <esosman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

Confession: Monty Hall got, er, my goat when I first encountered the
puzzle. Yes, folks, I blundered. But here's the argument that
eventually brought me to the light: imagine that instead of three doors
you'd started with one million, one with a car and 999999 with goats.

If that doesn't help, think of two people playing the game repeatedly,
where one always sticks with his first choice, and one always swaps.

The person who always sticks wins only if his initial choice is correct,
which has probability 1/3.

The person who always swaps wins only if his initial choice is incorrect,
which has probability 2/3.

I'd rather be player two after a few games.

Gareth
.

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