Re: Permanent High Gas Prices

On Tue, 10 Jun 2008 19:27:02 -0700, "Technobarbarian"
<Technobarbarian-ztopzpam@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:


It will affect different people differently.

You're links trace back to an interesting NY Times article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/09/business/09gas.html?pagewanted=2&_r=2&ref=business

Basically what they're saying here is that for many people whose lives
had already been marginal, with higher priced gas their lives will become
even more marginal. This isn't so much about rural lifestyles as it is about
being poor. We've got exurbs coming out our ears around here and AZ shows up
on the lower end of the suffering. Around here they can't seem to build the
"drive 'til you can afford it" homes fast enough, but those folks have good
jobs or good pensions. Even in the northern section of the state, where it's
extremely rural, they show up low on the suffering scale.

Rural means long drives to do anything, especially in the west.
That's why the rural poor will have it worse. In the cities,
there are smaller distances and alternate methods to get to work.


I've been looking at what I'm starting to think of as "the real cost of
energy". I sort of got started with Neon John's $1,000 electric car and a
Xebra I saw on the front page of the local fish wrap. For a few people the
Xebra might make sense, but it doesn't sound particulary well thought out or
well built. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZAP_Xebra
http://www.obairlann.net.nyud.net:8080/reaper/zap-xebra/ All that got me to
wondering what the real cost would be to operate a practical electric
vehicle. The guy with the Xebra claimed $12/month for electricity, but his
commute is only 12 miles round trip on relatively flat terrain and that
didn't include whatever his cost was for the batteries he was slowly using
up.

I don't think I could really live with a Xebra, unless I really
realllllly had to. I've driven a Prius. For most of my driving I could live
with that. Digging around one of the things I found was this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_hybrid I've just started looking into
this stuff and I have no idea how accurate their number are; but, they're
interesting: "In a 2006 research estimate in California, the cost to plug in
at night was equivalent to US$0.75 per U.S. gallon (3.8 L) of gasoline,[1]
whereas the pre-tax cost of gasoline is just under US$3 per gallon. The cost
of electricity for a Prius PHEV is about US$0.03 per mile (US$0.019 per km),
based on 0.26 kW·h/mi (129 mpg) and a cost of electricity of US$0.10 per
kilowatt hour.[78][79] During 2008, many government and industry researchers
are focusing on determining what level of all-electric range is economically
optimum for the design.[80] In 2008, a PHEV can travel 30 miles for just US$
1.04 (the same mileage as a gallon of gasoline costing $3.00.)[81]"

If those numbers are in the ballpark we could be seeing: the beginning
of the end of the Golden Age of Gasoline, some adjustments, and some rough
spots; but, if the *real* cost of energy, that isn't in the form of
gasoline, is that low it doesn't sound like that big a change for most of
us.

TB




Well, if we're going electric, we better start building lots of
nuke plants NOW. There's a big lead time, and not much spare
capacity in the current generating climate.



.

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