Re: Recession music

Thanks for your remarks on this topic. It's just another day on the
ramparts. ......joe

--
Visit me on the web www.JoeFinn.net


<jkr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:ukq274dd008guo1ugb1cl5e3vg58l71tsu@xxxxxxxxxx





For anyone buying into JKR's so-called expertise,

For what it's worth I have almost a decade on you in age and
experience. I've never had my almost 30 years of experience and
expertise (since 1978), as a Series 7 Representative with a couple of
major firms - then my own - referred to as "so called". You must have
quite a resume in financial services to be able to minimize mine. Mine
includes involvement in domestic oil drilling programs, oil income
programs, first hand experience with energy stock portfolio managers,
wildcatters, boardrooms, - and a lot more I could care less if you
know about.

It's also quite amusing to hear you suggest going to a website of
public domain statistics. (which I'm more than familiar with)
considering I've been privy to inside information for almost 30 years
(none of which is disclosed by law in my posts) Ah yes. the internet
makes "geniuses" out of so many amateurs -giving them a minimum grasp
of the obvious. (Many blogs are laughed at behind closed boardroom
doors)

I'm not here to be political - I'm politically agnostic. If a
political party is your religion, God help you (pun intended) I just
know what policies work and which don't. Someone else brought this
subject up. In view of the last several months of global economics,
Iraq, oil prices, and forthcoming election PLUS the recent decision
by the Supreme Court to grant Habeas Corpus rights to enemy combatants
- I thought I'd respond.

Read this carefully: I DON'T GIVE A *** WHAT YOUR POLITICS ARE. I
am concerned about the effects of global economics, oil prices, and
NATIONAL SECURITY.

The topic of this thread is "RECESSION MUSIC" -- well . if you want
to relate the state of the economy to the music industry. I thought
maybe I could offer a professional thought on the subject.

Read this carefully: I'M NOT HERE TO ARGUE WITH ANYBODY. I don't need
to do this and after this post I'm done. I'm sorry I got sucked into
this in the first place - it's a complete #$#%# waste of my time. .
Only in the interest of National Security -- here are the flaws in
your comments -point by point.


go to the website for the Energy Information Agency, the official
U.S. government office concerning energy statistics. If you check out
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mcrfpus1A.htm you can see that
1971 was the year the USA produced the most crude oil ever. Our
production increased slightly during the Reagan years compared to the
late 1970s, but those increases were wiped out by the late 1980s, and
now they're about half what they were in 1970. The amount produced in
1970 is known as "peak oil" for the USA.


So what? Everybody knows this. You are out of context on the
argument and not focusing on what is important. What does that have to
do with oil prices FALLING from $40 to $17 in the 80s to the 90s?!!
It wasn't just production. it was also taxes. economic policies.
strong national defense policies. THIS is what is important:
1) In the 70s, controlled, over taxed, domestic oil companies stopped
producing. Imports grew to 37%, OPEC formed, OPEC quadrupled
prices.. By 79. (read my previous posts)
2) Reagan decontrolled prices and LOWERED TAXES. oil prices
COLLAPSED..
3) Peak oil point remains to be seen - strictly theoretical.



Drilling the ANWR and
offshore will not match these losses or the steadily increasing amount
we import every year.

. make that comment based on what?? Do you know what the proven
reserves are in the Gulf? ANWR? Dakotas? The oil company experts
know what the potential is --- they say differently.



What Peak Oil proponents believe is that it's not running out of oil
that's the problem, it's running out of CHEAP oil.

Is that a new way to measure price? Price is the result of the
relationship between supply and demand - perceived or real - AND the
economic policies (taxes) that may directly affect price.


When you reach the
half way point of all the available oil on the planet that amount
extracted will begin to decline, just like it consistently has been
doing in the US since 1970.

And. no one knows or can know when that is UNTIL we have exhausted
EXPLORATION!!


The problem is, we - meaning everyone in
the world, not just the US - are already used to increasing amounts of
oil to meet the needs of an expanding and technologically developing
population,

And those increasing supplys will keep increasing if we keep
exploring!


so the decline is coming as a nasty shock, the effects of
which were predicted years ago and are now being seen on a daily
basis.

Not exactly. Nasty shock NOW due to the stated economic policies of
the Democrats to: 1) raise taxes, go after oil company products. and
even nationalize them (stated by Maxine Waters and Hillary Clinton)
2) NOT drill in ANWR and off coast and Gulf

The perceived economic policies of the Democrats - especially
involving oil has the futures markets spooked. They are perceiving
that the strong possibility of a Dem winning will drive up costs and
decrease exploration.

THIS IS WHY PRICES ARE HIGH RIGHT NOW!!

IF - the policy of the congress to open oil exploration, build
refineries, lower taxes, is perceived - OIL PRICES WILL COLLAPSE.

Mark my words - if it wasn't for all this carbon footprint bull***,
refusal to drill, refusal to build refineries, threat to increase
taxes. oil prices RIGHT NOW WOULD BE $70 to $90 A BARREL!

The speculators bubble will collapse as soon as the perception of more
future supply (drilling and refineries combined with nuclear and
alternatives to save oil).


Blaming it on speculators, the Indians, and the Chinese is just
stupid because it doesn't change anything; the price will continue to
go up because the demand will continue to outstrip the supply.

Not if we drill now!!


Having more supply would make the price of oil go down, but do you
really think some environmentalists could get in the way of the entire
US economy (and the world) going down the tubes? Give me a break.

Yes. Perhaps you forgot the 70s and Carter. We were close to "Great
Depression II". Thank your lucky stars for Reagonomics. You better
hope to hell we don't have another Dem in the White House. this time
.. It will be the depression as we get our oil cut off with no new
supplies in sight and dumb economics (raising taxes and Socialism)
followed by the real threat of nuclear war as the Dems pull us out of
the war on terrorism.



If
we drill in the ANRW and in the oceans the price would maybe drop for
a bit and then keep going right on up. Like I said to Joe on another
post the price of oil has gone up 1,000% in just ten years, from $14
to over $145 per barrel as of last Thursday. This is Al Gore's fault?
Tell me another one.


I think my previous posts were clear. Sounds like you just like Al
Gore, his family fortune from the big oil companies (Occidental
Petroleum) he bashes, his $100 million made so far from Global
Warming nonsense and all of his hypocrisy. Call him for your next
gig.




Here's an excerpt from an article that appeared in The Nation
magazine. 'Though largely unnoticed by the world media, a decisive
moment in the peak oil debate came last September, when James
Schlesinger declared that the "peakists" were right. You don't get
closer to the American establishment and energy business than
Schlesinger, who has served as chair of the Atomic Energy Commission,
head of the CIA, Defense Secretary, Energy Secretary and adviser to
countless oil companies. In a speech to a conference sponsored by the
Association for the Study of Peak Oil, Schlesinger said, "It's no
longer the case that we have a few voices crying in the wilderness.
The battle is over. The peakists have won." Schlesinger added that
many oil company CEOs privately agree that peak oil is imminent but
don't say so publicly.'


We have stopped exploring and drilling! We don't know where peak oil
is until we don't find it. Funny thing. every time exploration is
unrestricted, we find oil!!!



But of course if we elect John McCain president and let the free
market run its course we'll get through this just fine. Sure we will.


What's your alternative? Socialism? Obama? Libertarian?

Vote Libertarian and you swing the election to either a Dem or Repub -
the "world series is a TWO team game". Go ahead - vote Dem - their
economic policies at this time will be disastrous. McCain is being
educated as we speak - he was a little dim on the oil situation. He's
the least of all evils.

Otherwise - economically - kiss your axe goodbye and get ready to sell
pencils.

JKR






















On Sun, 6 Jul 2008 02:56:37 -0700 (PDT), "clay@xxxxxxxxxxxxx"
<clay@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

On Jul 3, 12:41 am, j...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx wrote:

With respect and hope to all,

For anyone buying into JKR's so-called expertise, do yourself a favor
and go to the website for the Energy Information Agency, the official
U.S. government office concerning energy statistics. If you check out
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mcrfpus1A.htm you can see that
1971 was the year the USA produced the most crude oil ever. Our
production increased slightly during the Reagan years compared to the
late 1970s, but those increases were wiped out by the late 1980s, and
now they're about half what they were in 1970. The amount produced in
1970 is known as "peak oil" for the USA. Drilling the ANWR and
offshore will not match these losses or the steadily increasing amount
we import every year.

What Peak Oil proponents believe is that it's not running out of oil
that's the problem, it's running out of CHEAP oil. When you reach the
half way point of all the available oil on the planet that amount
extracted will begin to decline, just like it consistently has been
doing in the US since 1970. The problem is, we - meaning everyone in
the world, not just the US - are already used to increasing amounts of
oil to meet the needs of an expanding and technologically developing
population, so the decline is coming as a nasty shock, the effects of
which were predicted years ago and are now being seen on a daily
basis. Blaming it on speculators, the Indians, and the Chinese is just
stupid because it doesn't change anything; the price will continue to
go up because the demand will continue to outstrip the supply.

Having more supply would make the price of oil go down, but do you
really think some environmentalists could get in the way of the entire
US economy (and the world) going down the tubes? Give me a break. If
we drill in the ANRW and in the oceans the price would maybe drop for
a bit and then keep going right on up. Like I said to Joe on another
post the price of oil has gone up 1,000% in just ten years, from $14
to over $145 per barrel as of last Thursday. This is Al Gore's fault?
Tell me another one.

Here's an excerpt from an article that appeared in The Nation
magazine. 'Though largely unnoticed by the world media, a decisive
moment in the peak oil debate came last September, when James
Schlesinger declared that the "peakists" were right. You don't get
closer to the American establishment and energy business than
Schlesinger, who has served as chair of the Atomic Energy Commission,
head of the CIA, Defense Secretary, Energy Secretary and adviser to
countless oil companies. In a speech to a conference sponsored by the
Association for the Study of Peak Oil, Schlesinger said, "It's no
longer the case that we have a few voices crying in the wilderness.
The battle is over. The peakists have won." Schlesinger added that
many oil company CEOs privately agree that peak oil is imminent but
don't say so publicly.'

But of course if we elect John McCain president and let the free
market run its course we'll get through this just fine. Sure we will.

Clay Moore - learning to garden






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