Re: Evangelicals for Obama?

In article <NGO9k.143633$Ev5.63491@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
"Octopus Ride" <davko58@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

"Edwin Hurwitz" <edwin@xxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:edwin-8E447A.00083129062008@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
In article <Csy9k.137081$Ev5.57195@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
"Octopus Ride" <davko58@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

"Edwin Hurwitz" <edwin@xxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:edwin-F78E0E.15205928062008@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

You'll have better odds at a lottery ticket than with the financial
markets these days. And that's entirely due to free market assholes who
prefer a quick buck than a strong America.

Oh, ease 'er down. I get the impression you've never actually
participated
in the financial markets. Of course there's more greed than ever (not
so
good), periodic manipulations (bad), too much emphasis on short term
results
and not enough emphasis on long term growth (bad), a proliferation of
exotic
derivatives in almost all asset markets (not so good), and too much
specualtion in commodities futures markets that occurs outside the actual
exchanges (really bad), but anyone willing to spend some time learning
about
how to make money by investing and trading can still manage to pull it
off.

Because of the above, and because we just happen to be in a down cycle at
the moment (which have always happened), and because the world is
interconnected (unavoidable) the markets pretty much blow chunks right
now.
But that doesn't mean that someone with a brain can't still make enough
money to avoid working a real job. I'm no richie rich by any means, but
that's what I do. And there's still a lot of old fashioned things that
work well too. Not everything has come flying apart. Its still a fact
that almost nothing beats a company in a good business with a good
balance
*** and good fundamentals, and there are plenty of them out there.
They're here and all over the world, and because of recent advancements,
its
easier than ever for an American to invest overseas.


Explain to me then, why my Apple stock took a *** in January when they
announced millions of dollars in profit and they have huge cash in
reserves. They are a company who is doing pretty much everything right
and they have been taking it on the chin.

January? As in market lows? Duh. Housing crisis, credit crisis, recession
fears, inflation specter, uptick in jobless claims.

I don't recall Apple and January specifically, but I can tell you why it
took a dump after their latest earnings release. Apple's PE ratio was
absurdly high. The stock had been on a tremendous run for months (years
actually) prior to releasing earnings. When stocks run up huge prior to
earnings, its almost inevitable that the stock will drop no matter what the
earnings are; the increase in stock price was already baked in. And Apple
is notorious for sandbagging earnings forecasts, so the Street wants a big
beat and raise to make up for Apple's sandbagging. They got inline results.
Apple depends on Steve jobs like no other company depends on one individual,
and during his latest presentation he looked like his cancer had come back.
That scared some people. They have tremendous competition in the phone
business, with RIMM continuing to dominate the iphone in enterprise sales.
The iphone is glamorous and successful, but it simply can't compete with the
Blackberry for business use.

Two years ago Apple was around $50. It closed Friday at $170, AFTER these
horrible retrenchments that have you upset. That's more than a TRIPLE in
two years. Yet you're upset that it didn't get a huge bounce after the
latest earnings, in the middle of a bear market? In case you aren't aware,
a TRIPLE in two years is a STUPENDOUS return. Sounds like you're getting
awfully greedy if you think that's not enough. The only stocks with better
recent records are the fertilizers and a handful of others in other sectors.
You should be thrilled at Apple's performance.

I owned RIMM while you owned Apple, both excellent stocks. In the last two
years RIMM jumped from around $30 to around $148. I got in at around $90.
Their earnings release was upcoming and I knew they would double their
revenue and their earnings year over year because they do that every
quarter. Yet I knew the PE was in the stratosphere, that the market in
general is in a cyclical downturn for very good reasons, and that a profit
of over 50% is TREMENDOUS. I sold at $145. The day after earnings, which
were as predicted but with lowered guidance for the next quarter, the stock
closed at $120.

Don't be greedy is my motto; when I'm up 50% I take my money and run.

While I'm not helped by most of the things I list at the beginning of
this
post, I am helped tremendously by some new financial products that make
no
sense at first blush. Buying them doesn't actually produce anything,
nobody outside a Wall St. firm gets a job because I buy them, but they do
produce money in my account as if by magic. Two words: Short ETF's.
Oh,
and three more words: Commodity Index ETF's. Ok, four more words:
Short
Commodity Index ETF's. And there's still a lot of old fashioned things
that work well too.

I understand why most people are befuddled by the financial markets these
days; until a year ago I was too. But things move pretty fast these
days
in every area of our society. I was befuddled by radio and TV and how on
earth it came into your house, and now I'm befuddled by cellphones. I'm
befuddled by MRI's and how planes stay in the air and how anyone can talk
about a molecule as if they know what the hell that really refers to.
I'm
befuddled by everything scientific. But I bet if I spent a year
learning
about that stuff I might understand it better and not be so afraid of it.

Lashing out at a system you haven't spent a moment trying to understand
seems pretty lazy, if you ask me. I chose to learn and try to turn the
system to my advantage. So far so good.

I lash out at a system that allows people to make huge profits by
pretending that their company is doing great, when they know it's going
to *** and then they bail, leaving the honest working people holding
the bag.

Obviously a bad thing, and equally obviously, very rare. Name 5 companies
in the last 5 years that comply with your description.

I lash out at a system that allows people to buy a healthy
company, load it up with debt and then after they've stripped the worth,
dump it at a bargain and put all the employees out of business.

See above, same thing. Things *like that* happen, no question. But very
rarely. "Put all the employees out of business"? I can't think of a
single one that comes close, other than Enron, and that was years ago and
all the employees weren't put out of business.

I'm all
for the use of capital to do good things, but the level of greed and
speculation is out of control. I'm glad it's working for you, but right
now I think it's doing more damage than good to our society.

What is "it"? I've posted here myself about the negative effects of
overheated specualtion in some of our markets these days. Which markets are
you upset about? What kind of speculation are you upset about? Or are you
just wildly generalizing without any knowledge of anything specific?

It can be
fixed, but until people get over the me first attitude, we're not going
to get too far. Trickle down economics doesn't work and the way things
are set up, the illusion of wealth is more important than the reality of
sound business.

Nice rant, but you've yet to offer a single specific example of what you're
talking about (other than a stock you own more that's more than tripled in
value in just two years), so I have to assume you don't have much knowledge
in this area. Its easy to read headlines and start foaming at the mouth.
I do that sometimes too. But that isn't a substitute for understanding how
our financial markets work, how the world economy works, or how companies
and their equities act within those contexts. I don't have that much
respect for uninformed emotional responses.

Educate me on some current situations that have caused you to form this
opinion of yours. I'm always willing to learn.

OR

OK, I'll do some research and get back to you. for the record, I did not
get in on Apple when it was nice and cheap, I'm hovering around a net
even. So, don't accuse me of being greedy on that one. I saw they were
doing well and they are a company I believe in, so I thought I'd put my
money there. If investment occurred because the investors believed in
the company and held long rather than going for a quick buck as the
market goes up and down, I'd have a lot more faith in the system. You
are correct in that I don't know all the ins and outs of the stock
market, but I still don't think that a company should be punished when
it's basically healthy and I don't think that CEOs should make millions
when they aren't really adding any value to the world. I'd love a golden
parachute, personally.

Edwin
--
If you want to make peace, you don't talk to your friends. You talk to your
enemies.
-Moshe Dayan

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