Re: Why Should I Vote For Obama?


"Octopus Ride" <davko58@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
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"Chunk" <chunk1776@xxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
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"Octopus Ride" <davko58@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
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That's mild comparatively to the hit that a doubled capital gains tax
would have on retirees and the housing market.

I wasn't comparing the two, I was pointing out that McCain has little
economic knowledge and shrinking integrity.

But if we want to compare irrelevant points, increasing the capital
gains tax would do far less harm than continuing to spend a trillion
dollars on a useless war in Iraq.

Shrinking your income when you have big bills to pay isn't the smartest
thing to do either. Its dogmatic fallacy the raising taxes will increase
your income. If you lower the incentive to buy and sell assets, you don't
benefit from taxing it.


Now, on to capital gains. I oppose increasing the capital gains tax for
anyone who earns less than 200k a year. I have no problem raising it
for those who make more than that. Raising the tax might inhibit my
personal trading strategies in some small degree because to me every
dollar counts; but it would have almost no impact on big money hedge
funds or multi-millionaires.

And I'll predict right now that if Obama were elected, the tax either
wouldn't be raised at all (Charlie Rangel isn't a big fan of such a
thing) or it would be raised on the rich and not on me.


He already has big tax increases ready to go.

Even if it were raised on me, it would be worth altering my trading
strategies in some small degree to see the fear mongering, useless war
waging, treasury draining Republicans lose the White House.


That's fine. However, there are choices other than a guy that makes
reckless and punitive economics decisions based on no solid reasoning at
all.
I would think someone as thoughful as you might would be smarter than
that. There is no reason to trade bad for bad.

Other choices???? There's one other choice and its McCain.

Hillary has way more experience and at least loves the country.

I could see
myself voting for him if Clinton were the nominee and IF McCain pulled WAY
back on his war rhetoric. But Obama is the nominee and I don't see McCain
doing that. I will never agree 100% with any candidate's proposals.
I'll always disagree about some things. But I have to weigh the benefits
and the costs, the good and the bad, and for me its no contest. I'll take
a guy I disagree with about cap gains rates over a guy who talks like he
wants to start a war with Iran every time.

And I don't think raising the cap gains tax to what it was during the
Clinton economic and stock market boom is a reckless and punitive
decision.

The capital gains rate during the Clinton administration fell from 28
percent at the beginning to 20 percent with the signing of the Taxpayer
Relief Act of 1997.Before that, the economy managed only two years of growth
of 4 percent or more in the decade before the 1997 cap gains cut but had
three straight years of such growth in 1997, 1998, and 1999. Actually,
Obama will raise it 8% higher than that and doesn't have any sound reason
for doing so other than redistribution. He admitted that. That's either
radical, reckless or both. Hillary won't even go that far.


My goodness, the markets seemed to survive the rate back then; in fact
they exploded higher during that period. It just goes against my
philosophical grain to raise taxes; especially if the increase might
affect me personally.

After rate cuts.

Unfortunately GW Bush has spent this country into an unbelievable deficit
and debt, and if taxes have to be raised to help cover that massive
profligacy then the cap gains tax is a good place to start, as the vast
majority of that new money would come from people who got a big fat tax
break right as we launched a trillion dollar war. Nothing like sharing
the sacrifice; most of which has fallen on young people who joined the
military. The fat cats got a tax cut while you got an MRE and a ride on a
Humvee.

I don't think a lot of people are thrilled with the borrow and spend
republicans. Perhaps, we can cut some spending and not take out a tax
increase that will finish off the housing market. Senseless economic policy
will only dig a deeper hole.



Obama is very popular amongst the well heeled. He's criticized for being
an elitist, with a coterie of wine sipping, Volvo driving liberals as the
backbone of his support. Even people like Warren Buffet are Obama
supporters, and you don't get any richer than that. They're aware of
this proposal. They don't mind going back to the rate they used to pay
before.


They'll be paying a rate that slowed growth.. Clinton cut the rate to 20%
with great success. Obama is talking 28%-almost double the rate it is now.
Its an increase that will likely decrease revenue. It may not make a big
difference to someone like Buffett but it will affect people dependent on
pension funds that may not be so rich. Its funny that Obama gets heat for
saying poor country people are stupid for voting against their economic
interests in a room full of wealthy supporters that vote against their own
economic interests. Warren Buffett talks the talk until they try and tax
his fleet of privat jets-then he ain't so happy to give his money to Uncle
Sam.

They know that someone has to help the country recover from the national
nightmare that was the Bush administration, and they know that the
government has to pay off all that debt run up during that insane war
somehow. Why not tax rich people at their old rate? What better place
to start? Why not tax the rich liberal elite who got a tax break right as
hundreds of thousands of not so well off minorities and small town and
rural whites were sent off to war? And being one of those sent off to war
(and presumably you're not a well off day trader
why would you object so
vigorously to this idea?


An increase in the cap gains tax will be counterproductive in solving the
housing mess for one. For the 11th time, lower cap gains tax rates have
generated more revenue than higher rates. That's what's so senseless to me.
I could understand Obama wanting to tax rich people, this ain't the way.
People will sell off or lock up their assets and revenue will tank.


As for the effect on the markets: The fact of the matter is that there is
wild speculation in the markets these days. Hedge funds and other large
investor entities buy and sell on a minute by minute basis. If an
increase were to slow some of that down it would be a good thing for the
markets.

Don't believe that. That kind of downward pressure will discourage
investment and drive the market down.

That and bringing back the short sell uptick rule might even encourage
actual investing as opposed to frenzied day trading. Investing produces
capital for businesses, allowing them to hire and grow. Trading produces
nothing but money for the trader.


Raising fears of confiscatory tax rates on capital gains will cause a sell
off and push the market down. Brokers cash in regardless.


I do short term trading from time to time myself, so I would still oppose
an increase on my income group.

100 million people will be affected by this including 50 hedgefund managers.
It will LOWER government revenue in the long term. Why would you punish
people for no net benefit or likely a net loss? Its horrible economics at
the least.

But look, the REALITY is that the vast
majority of cap gains money won't be taxed at a higher rate anyway. The
minute this passes, a myriad of strategies to avoid the hike will appear
overnight. One way is obvious: invest instead of trade.

Yes, money will chase a higher rate of return elsewhere after investors dump
their assets while its still profitable. High taxes will discourage
investment. "Investments" will still be subject to capital gains - not sure
what you mean? Incorporation in the Caymans sounds like a good stategy!


Even an
individual who isn't a millionaire like myself can employ simple
strategies to avoid the hike, like simply selling a matching amount of
losing investment to write off the gain of a winning one. Hedge funds,
institutions, and wealthy individuals will find hundreds of ways to avoid
paying more money to the feds. The economy will see no significant harm.


If you were talking about a modest increase that might be debatable.


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